alphagbm-polymarket

To spot mispricing between Polymarket and options, compare prediction-market probabilities with options-implied probabilities derived from option prices and skews. Computing the probability spread reveals arbitrage signals for binary events like rate cuts or elections.

Options-implied probability is derived from option prices and skews, while prediction market data reflects event probabilities on Polymarket. Comparing the two surfaces probability discrepancies that indicate potential arbitrage opportunities.

Yes, you can use Polymarket data with options positioning to find actionable trades. The process ranks mispricing signals by probability spread and provides historical context on prior accuracy to suggest trades with risk context.

The best way to identify arbitrage signals for binary events is to fetch Polymarket probabilities, derive options-implied probabilities from related options, compute the spread, and rank the mispricing signals to surface discrepancies.

Yes, comparing Polymarket probabilities with options prices provides historical performance context. It includes prior accuracy and past-event performance data to help gauge the reliability of the identified mispricing signals.

You should not rely on Polymarket and options probability spreads when historical context indicates low prior accuracy for the specific event type, or when options skews fail to clearly imply a probability for the binary scenario.