What problem does it solve?
This Skill helps analysts understand how fiscal deficits as a share of GDP may expand when unemployment rises while GDP remains elevated, providing a structured framework to quantify risks and narrative around long-term UST implications.
Core Features & Use Cases
- Labor slack construction: compute UJO, Sahm rule, and ΔUR to identify "labor softening" events.
- Event sampling: identify historical episodes where labor weakness and high GDP co-occur.
- Deficit/GDP projection: apply three modeling approaches (event banding, quantile mapping, robust regression) to generate distributional projections and scenario narratives.
- UST risk interpretation: produce a dual-channel assessment (supply pressure vs. risk aversion) with actionable monitoring indicators.
- Visualization outputs: generate three-axis charts and scenario visuals to support decision making for macro risk.
- Use Case: a risk team evaluating how plausible deficits could rise in a future with rising unemployment but still-strong GDP, informing debt management and Fed policy considerations.
Quick Start
- Run fast diagnostics using the default configuration to get a current snapshot of slack, GDP stance, and baseline deficit projections.
- Perform full scenario analysis by adjusting lookback horizons, horizon quarters, GDP path, and unemployment shock parameters.
- Generate visualization outputs to accompany the numerical projections and scenario narratives.
Quick Start Example: Run the default quick analysis to obtain a baseline projection and diagnostics, then generate visuals for the moderate scenario and save results to result.json.
