assumption-mapping

Prioritizing product assumptions involves plotting them on a 2x2 risk matrix evaluating confidence versus criticality. This method identifies P1, P2, and P3 bets, allowing teams to focus validation efforts on the riskiest product assumptions before committing development resources.

Assumption mapping is the process of extracting hidden bets from product ideas. Use it during product discovery sessions, idea reviews, or PRD refreshes to surface open questions and open questions early, ensuring you validate critical risks before writing detailed specifications.

To design cheap tests for validating product assumptions, use methods like Fake door, Concierge MVP, Wizard of Oz, interviews, or surveys. Outline specific hypotheses, testing methods, success criteria, and estimated costs for your top P1 risks to achieve validated learning quickly.

Yes, you can use assumption mapping to review existing PRDs. It helps extract and categorize hidden bets within the document, prioritizes open questions by risk level, and outputs recommended cheap-test designs to validate those specific PRD assumptions.

When evaluating product idea risks, consider assumptions across four categories: desirability, feasibility, viability, and ethical risk. Mapping assumptions across these dimensions ensures comprehensive discovery and surfaces hidden bets early in the product development lifecycle.