assumption-mapping

Assumption mapping scores risky beliefs by importance to success and evidence available, prioritizing the top 3-5 assumptions to test with low-cost experiments and explicit decision rules.

Assumption mapping is a technique to surface, classify, and prioritize risky beliefs embedded in a product idea or strategy, enabling early, risk-driven validation before a build begins.

Categorize product risks across four specific areas: value risk, usability risk, business viability risk, and feasibility risk, then design low-cost experiments to validate each assumption.

Design low-cost experiments by defining explicit decision rules and clear validation criteria to validate or invalidate each prioritized assumption, guarding against unverifiable claims.

Assumption mapping is designed for early-stage validation, requiring only a concrete restatement of your idea to surface top risky assumptions and guide roadmap focus before development.

Assumption mapping focuses on testing the top 3-5 risky assumptions, producing an assumption table with prioritization, test proposals, and decision rules to guide product decisions.