bet-sizing

Evaluate product bets using Shape Up's appetite model and Type 1/Type 2 decision frameworks.

54|4|Updated Feb 18, 2026
One-click install
npx skills add https://github.com/assimovt/productskills --skill bet-sizing
Or copy as Structured Prompt for Agent
Please help me install this Agent Skill.
Skill: bet-sizing
Source: https://github.com/assimovt/productskills/tree/main/skills/bet-sizing
Command: npx skills add https://github.com/assimovt/productskills --skill bet-sizing

SYSTEM DOCUMENTATION & REQUIREMENTS

What problem does it solve?

This Skill helps product teams evaluate the risk and potential of new product initiatives by distinguishing between reversible and irreversible decisions and structuring pitches effectively.

Core Features & Use Cases

  • Decision Classification: Differentiates between Type 1 (irreversible) and Type 2 (reversible) decisions to apply appropriate process rigor.
  • Shape Up Pitching: Guides users to structure new feature or project proposals using the Shape Up format, including problem, appetite, solution, rabbit holes, and no-gos.
  • Expected Value Assessment: Provides a framework for estimating the potential return on investment for larger bets.
  • Use Case: When proposing a new feature, use this Skill to classify the decision type, define the time appetite, outline the core solution, identify potential risks, and explicitly state what's out of scope.

Quick Start

Use the bet-sizing skill to evaluate a new feature proposal by classifying its decision type and outlining its appetite.

Frequently Asked Questions about bet-sizing

High-intent search queries and answers about installing and using this skill.

FAQPage Schema
How do I structure a product pitch using the Shape Up methodology?

To structure a product pitch using Shape Up, define the problem, set the time appetite, outline the core solution, identify potential rabbit holes, and explicitly state no-gos. This format ensures proposals are scoped effectively before resource allocation.

What is the difference between Type 1 and Type 2 decisions in product management?

Type 1 decisions are irreversible and require rigorous process, while Type 2 decisions are reversible and allow faster action. Classifying product bets this way helps determine the appropriate level of risk assessment and resource allocation.

How do I evaluate the risk of a new feature proposal?

Evaluate the risk of a new feature proposal by classifying its decision reversibility and estimating its expected value. This approach applies appropriate process rigor and helps decide resource allocation for the initiative.

When should I use an appetite model for product bets?

Use an appetite model for product bets when proposing new features or projects to constrain time investment. It helps shape pitches by defining how much time is available, ensuring solutions fit within allocated resources.

Can I estimate expected return on investment for larger product initiatives?

You can estimate expected return on investment for larger product initiatives by applying an expected value assessment framework. This provides a structured method to evaluate the potential return against the defined appetite and risks.