big-cycle-analysis

What problem does it solve?

Provides a structured framework to evaluate and communicate long-term national and organizational risk by mapping economic, political, and debt dynamics onto Ray Dalio's "big cycle" stages, enabling clearer mid-to-long-term strategic decisions.

Core Features & Use Cases

• Frameworked Diagnosis: Step-by-step guidance to collect indicators, compute relative Z-scores, and estimate an "empire score" across eight major decision factors.
• Stage Mapping & Scenarios: Methods to place a country or organization within the six-stage big-cycle model and to build optimistic, baseline, and pessimistic 10-year scenarios.
• Monitoring & Actionable Outputs: Lists of leading indicators to monitor, practical policy and portfolio implications, and translation guidance for applying the model to firms or sectors.
• Use Case: A geopolitics analyst can apply the framework to compare the United States and China, quantify relative strengths, determine current stages, and generate scenario-based risk-adjusted recommendations.

Quick Start

Analyze a target country by collecting the eight core decision-factor metrics, computing relative Z-scores against peers, estimating the empire score, assigning the big-cycle stage, and producing three 10-year scenarios with monitoring indicators.