contrarian-analysis

Stress-test business decisions by forcing pre-mortems and steel-manning opposing arguments.

4|Updated Jan 28, 2026

Search Tags:#steel-man #pre-mortem #decision-analysis #second-order-effects #contrarian #bias-audit

Ready to run

npx skills add https://github.com/wme3/DeliberateDecisions --skill contrarian-analysis

💬 Prompt for ChatGPT / Claude Chat▼

Please help me install this Agent Skill.
Skill: contrarian-analysis
Source: https://github.com/wme3/DeliberateDecisions/tree/main/skills/contrarian-analysis
Command: npx skills add https://github.com/wme3/DeliberateDecisions --skill contrarian-analysis

SYSTEM DOCUMENTATION & REQUIREMENTS

What problem does it solve?

Actively challenges decisions by forcing pre-mortems, steel-man opposing arguments, and bias audits to surface hidden risks before committing to a path.

Core Features & Use Cases

Pre-mortem analysis to imagine failure scenarios and evaluate probability, severity, and detectability.
Steel-man the opposition by constructing the strongest case for rejected options and identifying when they might be preferable.
Bias audit and second-order effect mapping to reveal cognitive traps and ripple consequences across stakeholders and the organization.
Decision-killer identification to flag fatal flaws that should halt a course of action.

Quick Start

Initiate Contrarian Gate analysis on your decision by documenting failure scenarios and building the strongest case for rejected options.

Frequently Asked Questions about contrarian-analysis

High-intent search queries and answers about installing and using this skill.

FAQPage Schema

How do I run a pre-mortem analysis on a business decision?▼

To run a pre-mortem analysis, document failure scenarios for your favored decision and evaluate their probability, severity, and detectability before committing. This process surfaces hidden risks and maps failure modes across stakeholders.

What is steel-manning the opposition in decision analysis?▼

Steel-manning the opposition means constructing the strongest possible case for rejected options during decision analysis. It identifies the conditions under which an alternative strategy or product decision might actually be preferable to the favored path.

How do I audit cognitive biases in strategic decisions?▼

Auditing cognitive biases involves actively challenging your favored option to reveal cognitive traps and mapping second-order effects across stakeholders. This surfaces ripple consequences and identifies fatal decision killers.

Can I use contrarian analysis for hiring and investment decisions?▼

Yes, contrarian analysis applies to strategy, product decisions, hiring, and investments. It stress-tests choices by forcing pre-mortems and opposition to the favored option, mapping failure modes across these specific business contexts.

What is the best way to identify decision killers before committing?▼

The best way to identify decision killers is to force a pre-mortem and build a steel-man of the opposition. This flags fatal flaws that should halt a course of action, providing clearly documented scenarios and mitigations.

When should I not use a contrarian approach for decision testing?▼

A contrarian approach may not suit routine, low-stakes operational choices where the overhead of mapping second-order effects outweighs the benefit. It is designed for rigorous stress-testing of key business decisions where hidden risks carry severe consequences.