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DCF Valuation

Generates probability-weighted intrinsic DCF valuations for US stocks with Bull/Base/Bear scenarios and sensitivity analysis.

3|Updated May 9, 2026
Search Tags:#sensitivity analysis#dcf#margin of safety#wacc#terminal value#intrinsic valuation#bull base bear
One-click install
npx skills add https://github.com/severin-ye/OpenStock--Analyst --skill dcf-valuation-severin-ye
Or copy as Structured Prompt for Agent▼
Please help me install this Agent Skill.
Skill: DCF Valuation
Source: https://github.com/severin-ye/OpenStock--Analyst/tree/main/src/investskill/plugins/us-stock-analysis/skills/dcf-valuation
Command: npx skills add https://github.com/severin-ye/OpenStock--Analyst --skill dcf-valuation-severin-ye

SYSTEM DOCUMENTATION & REQUIREMENTS

What problem does it solve?

This Skill helps you determine a stock’s intrinsic value using Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) instead of relying on relative “best vs. worst” scoring or single-point forecasts, by forcing explicit assumptions across time, scenarios, and risk inputs.

Core Features & Use Cases

  • Rigorous 10-year DCF modeling: Builds forecasts from baseline Free Cash Flow (FCF), revenue, FCF margins, shares, net debt, and a properly treated Stock-Based Compensation (SBC).
  • Three-scenario probability weighting: Produces Bull/Base/Bear intrinsic values and a probability-weighted intrinsic value as the primary output.
  • Terminal value, WACC, and guardrails: Computes terminal value (Gordon Growth or exit multiple) and discounting via CAPM-based cost of equity and debt-derived cost of debt, with explicit discussion of terminal value sensitivity.
  • 5×5 sensitivity analysis and margin of safety: Outputs an intrinsic value sensitivity table across WACC and terminal growth rate combinations and frames results against the current market price.

Quick Start

Ask the Skill to run a full three-scenario DCF for AAPL and return the probability-weighted intrinsic value plus the sensitivity table.

Frequently Asked Questions about DCF Valuation

High-intent search queries and answers about installing and using this skill.

FAQPage Schema
How do I calculate intrinsic value using a DCF model with bull base bear scenarios?▼

To calculate intrinsic value with a DCF model, you forecast ten years of free cash flows across bull, base, and bear scenarios, then apply probability weightings to derive a single per-share equity value estimate.

How does WACC sensitivity analysis impact my discounted cash flow valuation?▼

WACC sensitivity analysis impacts a discounted cash flow valuation by generating a 5×5 table that shows how varying discount rates and terminal growth rates shift the final intrinsic value, quantifying assumption risk.

What is the best way to handle stock-based compensation and net debt in an intrinsic valuation?▼

The best way to handle stock-based compensation in an intrinsic valuation is to explicitly adjust free cash flow assumptions, while net debt is subtracted from enterprise value to derive accurate per-share equity value.

Can I use terminal value and CAPM for US stock fundamental valuation workflows?▼

Yes, you can use terminal value and CAPM for US stock fundamental valuation by computing terminal value via Gordon Growth or exit multiple, and discounting cash flows using a CAPM-derived cost of equity and cost of debt.

When should I not use a probability-weighted DCF over relative valuation scoring?▼

You should not use a probability-weighted DCF when reliable inputs for baseline revenue growth, FCF margins, or cost of capital components are unavailable, as disciplined assumptions are required to avoid garbage-in valuation outputs.

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