decision-intelligence

What problem does it solve?

It helps you evaluate a single decision or belief when probability and stakes are clear enough to quantify, but human bias (like sunk costs, intuition over math, and survivorship narratives) is likely distorting your reasoning.

Core Features & Use Cases

• Six mandatory models for decision clarity: Expected Value, Base Rate Neglect, Sunk Cost Fallacy, Bayesian Thinking, Survivorship Bias, and Kelly Criterion are applied in sequence to correct predictable mistakes.
• Stakes-aware math, not vibes: Converts outcomes into explicit probability and payoff terms (money, time, opportunity, and emotional costs) and synthesizes a final action with confidence and key risks.
• Targets biased triggers: Especially useful for “should I do this?”, “is it worth it?”, “I already invested in this,” and long-term commitments with real financial or time consequences; it avoids decision-option comparisons that belong in decision synthesis.

Quick Start

Apply the decision-intelligence skill to your single decision by stating the exact question, listing possible outcomes with estimated probabilities and payoffs, then asking for the synthesized recommendation and the top biases likely affecting your judgment.