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PatrickSUDO
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ev-check

Calculate expected value and probability distribution for investment portfolios.

136|11|Updated May 31, 2026
Search Tags:#financial analysis#portfolio analysis#probability distribution#EV calculation#investment decision-making
One-click install
npx skills add https://github.com/PatrickSUDO/fadacai-portfolio --skill ev-check
Or copy as Structured Prompt for Agent▼
Please help me install this Agent Skill.
Skill: ev-check
Source: https://github.com/PatrickSUDO/fadacai-portfolio/tree/main/.agents/skills/ev-check
Command: npx skills add https://github.com/PatrickSUDO/fadacai-portfolio --skill ev-check

SYSTEM DOCUMENTATION & REQUIREMENTS

💡 This Skill requires probability-honesty-checker, and includes scripts (resource) and references (resource) components.

What problem does it solve?

This Skill provides a rigorous calculation of expected value (EV) and probability distribution for investment portfolios, ensuring discipline and honesty in financial analysis.

Core Features & Use Cases

  • EV Calculation: Calculates the expected value of a portfolio over a specified time horizon.
  • Probability Distribution: Provides a detailed probability distribution of potential outcomes.
  • First-Principles Discipline: Ensures calculations are based on fundamental principles, avoiding shortcuts or assumptions.
  • Use Case: Before making a trading decision, use this Skill to analyze the potential outcomes of your portfolio over the next 30 days.

Quick Start

Run the /ev-check command followed by the desired time horizon (e.g., /ev-check 30d).

Frequently Asked Questions about ev-check

High-intent search queries and answers about installing and using this skill.

FAQPage Schema
How do I calculate expected value and probability distribution for an investment portfolio?▼

You can calculate expected value and probability distribution by running the ev-check Skill, which computes potential portfolio outcomes over a specified time horizon using first-principles discipline and rigorous data analysis.

What is first-principles discipline in financial analysis and why is it needed?▼

First-principles discipline in financial analysis ensures that expected value calculations are based on fundamental principles, avoiding shortcuts or assumptions to maintain rigor and honesty in investment decision-making.

How do I analyze potential portfolio outcomes before making a trading decision?▼

To analyze potential portfolio outcomes before trading, run the ev-check command followed by your desired time horizon, such as /ev-check 30d, to generate a detailed probability distribution of expected returns.

Do I need real-time data access to calculate expected value for my portfolio?▼

Yes, calculating expected value and probability distribution requires access to real-time data to ensure rigorous financial analysis and accurate investment decision-making over your specified time horizon.

Does ev-check work with a probability-honesty-checker dependency?▼

Yes, ev-check requires the probability-honesty-checker subagent to ensure discipline and honesty in calculating expected value and probability distribution for investment portfolios.

When should I not use automated EV calculation for investment decision-making?▼

You should not use automated EV calculation when you lack real-time data access or the probability-honesty-checker subagent, as first-principles discipline and rigorous data analysis are required for accurate results.

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