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expected-value

Compute probability-weighted values for decision actions under uncertainty.

Updated May 14, 2026
Search Tags:#ev#expected value#expected utility#expected monetary value#probability weighted#decision under uncertainty#break-even probability
One-click install
npx skills add https://github.com/jacob-balslev/skills --skill expected-value-jacob-balslev
Or copy as Structured Prompt for Agent▼
Please help me install this Agent Skill.
Skill: expected-value
Source: https://github.com/jacob-balslev/skills/tree/main/skills/meta-methods/expected-value
Command: npx skills add https://github.com/jacob-balslev/skills --skill expected-value-jacob-balslev

SYSTEM DOCUMENTATION & REQUIREMENTS

💡 This Skill includes references (resource) components.

What problem does it solve?

Use when choosing among actions under quantified uncertainty by enumerating outcomes, assigning probabilities, valuing each outcome in one shared unit, computing probability-weighted value, testing sensitivity, and checking downside constraints before recommending. Covers expected value, expected utility, expected monetary value, payoff tables, break-even probability, value of information, and risk of ruin constraints. Do NOT use for updating probabilities from evidence (use bayesian-reasoning), broad mixed-criteria backlog ranking (use prioritization), or tracing consequences before outcomes are modeled (use second-order-thinking).

Core Features & Use Cases

  • Defines the decision frame with actions, outcomes, probabilities, values, and costs.
  • Computes EV for each action, conducts sensitivity and break-even analysis, and enforces constraints before recommending.
  • Distinguishes expected value from related concepts like Bayesian reasoning, prioritization, and constraint-awareness; provides guidance on when to use each.

Quick Start

Define actions and outcomes, assign probabilities and values, compute the probability-weighted value for each action, and compare options while checking constraints.

Frequently Asked Questions about expected-value

High-intent search queries and answers about installing and using this skill.

FAQPage Schema
How do I calculate expected value to compare options under uncertainty?▼

To calculate expected value, define actions and outcomes, assign probabilities and values, compute the probability-weighted value for each action, and compare the results to rank your options.

What is the difference between expected value and expected utility?▼

Expected value ranks actions by probability-weighted monetary outcomes, while expected utility evaluates choices under uncertainty by incorporating risk preferences and non-monetary values into the probability-weighted calculation.

How do I perform a break-even probability analysis for a decision?▼

Break-even probability analysis identifies the exact likelihood at which two actions yield the same probability-weighted value, allowing you to test sensitivity and determine if an option remains viable under uncertain conditions.

When should I not use expected value for decision making?▼

Avoid expected value for updating probabilities from evidence, broad mixed-criteria backlog ranking, or tracing consequences before outcomes are modeled; use Bayesian reasoning, prioritization, or second-order-thinking respectively.

Can I enforce risk of ruin constraints when ranking actions by expected value?▼

Yes, you can apply hard constraints like risk of ruin limits to test downside sensitivity before recommending or rejecting an option, ensuring actions meet your specific risk tolerance thresholds.

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