finance-thesis-drift

Compares two investment thesis snapshots to detect factual drift versus wording changes.

Updated Aug 10, 2026
One-click install
npx skills add https://github.com/Choi-Keith/skill-arsenal-ultra --skill finance-thesis-drift-choi-keith
Or copy as Structured Prompt for Agent
Please help me install this Agent Skill.
Skill: finance-thesis-drift
Source: https://github.com/Choi-Keith/skill-arsenal-ultra/tree/main/plugins/finance-skills/finance-portfolio/skills/finance-thesis-drift
Command: npx skills add https://github.com/Choi-Keith/skill-arsenal-ultra --skill finance-thesis-drift-choi-keith

SYSTEM DOCUMENTATION & REQUIREMENTS

💡 This Skill includes scripts (resource) components.

What problem does it solve? Long-term investors struggle to tell whether a change in their research reports reflects real fundamental change or just rewording and price noise. This Skill compares two thesis snapshots and separates fact changes from wording changes, so you only revisit an investment when the evidence actually moved. ## Core Features & Use Cases - Evidence-Normalized Comparison: Extracts core assumptions, red lines, valuation anchors, management quality, and moat judgments from two reports into a single comparison table, judging each dimension as Improved, Unchanged, or Weakened. - Rigorous Numeric Verification: Routes all valuation math (PE, PB, FCF yield, market cap, three-scenario targets) through the bundled financial_rigor.py script using exact decimal arithmetic, with multi-source cross-validation. - Three Operating Modes: Compare two specified report paths, auto-discover dated snapshots in the reports directory, or gracefully handle a missing baseline by guiding you to build one first. - Use Case: After a new earnings season, run the drift check on your Tencent thesis snapshots to confirm whether margin compression is a real fundamental weakening or just a rephrased report, and get a clear action migration such as Hold to Reduce. ## Quick Start Ask the agent to run a thesis drift check on a company by providing the company name plus the paths of the old and new thesis reports, or just the company name to auto-compare snapshots in the reports folder.

Frequently Asked Questions about finance-thesis-drift

High-intent search queries and answers about installing and using this skill.

FAQPage Schema
How do I check if my investment thesis has changed?

Provide the company name plus paths to an old and new thesis report, or just the company name to auto-compare dated snapshots in the reports folder. The skill normalizes evidence across five dimensions and labels each as Improved, Unchanged, or Weakened with cited evidence.

How to tell stock price changes from fundamental changes?

The comparison only evaluates evidence such as revenue, margins, cash flow, red lines, and management behavior, never prose style. Price moves affect only the valuation anchor dimension and are explicitly separated from business fundamentals in the final report.

What happens if there is no historical thesis baseline?

The skill refuses to fabricate a baseline and enters missing-baseline mode. It explains that drift detection is impossible, then guides you to build a structured thesis first and save it as the baseline for future comparisons.

Does the drift check verify financial calculations?

Yes. All valuation math including PE, PB, FCF yield, market cap, and three-scenario target prices is computed by the bundled financial_rigor.py script using exact decimal arithmetic, and key figures require cross-validation from at least two independent sources.

When should I not use thesis drift detection?

Do not use it for establishing a first-time investment thesis on a new company, since there is no baseline to compare against. It also stops when the two reports cover different companies, requiring manual confirmation before proceeding.