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forecast-premortem

Stress-test predictions by assuming failure and identifying root causes and tail risks.

142|20|Updated Oct 22, 2025
Search Tags:#decision making#uncertainty#forecasting#risk assessment#premortem#tail risk
One-click install
npx skills add https://github.com/lyndonkl/claude --skill forecast-premortem
Or copy as Structured Prompt for Agent▼
Please help me install this Agent Skill.
Skill: forecast-premortem
Source: https://github.com/lyndonkl/claude/tree/main/skills/forecast-premortem
Command: npx skills add https://github.com/lyndonkl/claude --skill forecast-premortem

SYSTEM DOCUMENTATION & REQUIREMENTS

💡 This Skill includes scripts (resource) and references (resource) components.

What problem does it solve?

This Skill helps you identify blind spots and overconfidence in your predictions by forcing you to imagine they have already failed and work backward to understand why.

Core Features & Use Cases

  • Failure Premortem: Assume a prediction failed and write the history of how it happened.
  • Success Premortem: For pessimistic predictions, assume the unlikely success occurred and explore how.
  • Dragonfly Eye Perspective: Analyze failure through multiple conflicting viewpoints (skeptic, fanatic, observer).
  • Tail Risk Identification: Systematically find black swans and unknown unknowns using frameworks like PESTLE.
  • Confidence Interval Adjustment: Quantify how premortem findings should widen your forecast's uncertainty bounds.
  • Use Case: Before launching a new product, run a premortem to uncover potential market shifts, competitive responses, or execution pitfalls you hadn't considered, allowing you to proactively mitigate them.

Quick Start

Run a failure premortem for the prediction 'This startup will reach $10M ARR within 2 years' with 75% confidence.

Frequently Asked Questions about forecast-premortem

High-intent search queries and answers about installing and using this skill.

FAQPage Schema
How do I run a premortem analysis to identify tail risks in my forecasting?▼

A premortem stress-tests predictions by assuming failure has occurred and working backward to uncover root causes. It reveals overconfidence and unknown unknowns by utilizing backcasting and PESTLE analysis for comprehensive risk assessment.

What is the best way to uncover unknown unknowns and black swans in a decision making process?▼

The best way to uncover black swans is through a premortem analysis using the Dragonfly Eye Perspective. This analyzes failure through multiple conflicting viewpoints like skeptic, fanatic, and observer to systematically expose blind spots.

Can I use a premortem to adjust confidence intervals for an overly optimistic product launch prediction?▼

Yes, a failure premortem systematically identifies market shifts and execution pitfalls to quantify how much your forecast's uncertainty bounds should widen. This directly facilitates adjusting confidence intervals based on discovered tail risks.

Does a premortem work for pessimistic predictions where I expect an unlikely success?▼

Yes, a success premortem is designed for pessimistic predictions. You assume the unlikely success occurred and explore how it happened, helping you identify hidden drivers of positive outcomes you may have overlooked.

How does PESTLE analysis integrate with a risk assessment premortem?▼

PESTLE analysis integrates with a risk assessment premortem by providing a structured framework to systematically identify external tail risks. It ensures political, economic, social, technological, legal, and environmental factors are evaluated when working backward from failure.

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