What problem does it solve? When a key customer's forecast (EDI 830 or supplier portal) suddenly jumps while POS sell-through and CRM signals stay flat, planners must decide how much of the step-up to believe before committing supply. Chasing phantom demand triggers costly expedites (around $300K per chased spike), while dismissing a real ramp means missing the program. ## Core Features & Use Cases - Signal decomposition: Normalizes the 830 (cumulative vs discrete, firm vs planning zone), quantifies the gap, and splits it into bias, corroborated new-demand, and one-off residual. - Corroboration scoring: Scores evidence 0-100 across firm-zone commitments, POS trends, CRM programs, and release persistence, then maps the score to a credibility weight for the consensus number. - Priced options and gated writes: Builds accept / dampen / hold options with expedite cost, runs reconciliation in a scenario or what-if version, and holds the baseline commit for human planner approval. - Use Case: A customer's 830 jumps 40% on a platform part three weeks before quarter-end with flat POS and no CRM program. The skill zone-splits the release, scores corroboration at 0, prices all three options, and recommends Hold + confirm instead of committing supply. ## Quick Start Ask the assistant to reconcile the latest customer 830 forecast step-up against the consensus plan and recommend whether to accept, dampen, or hold before committing supply.
