fx-fundamentals

Build an FX valuation thesis by applying PPP, interest rate parity, and balance of payments frameworks to quantify currency drivers. This produces a defendable tradable view with entry and exit risk checks for G10 and major EM pairs.

Currency valuations are driven by relative and real rate differentials, current account signals, capital flows, and reserve dynamics. These indicators gauge funding pressures and inform medium-term forecasting horizons spanning weeks to quarters.

PPP-based valuation anchors and REER context are used for long-horizon foreign exchange forecasting. They provide baseline fair-value benchmarks that help identify persistent currency misalignments across G10 and emerging market pairs.

Assess policy divergence and terms-of-trade shifts by running scenario analysis within a structured macro fundamentals framework. This integrates rate differentials and current account signals to project currency impacts across tradable horizons.

This approach covers both G10 and major emerging market currency pairs. It applies macro fundamentals including balance of payments and positioning data to formulate tradable views and carry trade construction across both markets.

Incorporate positioning and intervention risk by evaluating risk signals alongside valuation benchmarks during carry trade construction. This identifies entry and exit decisions while mitigating potential central bank actions or funding pressure reversals.