gao-cost

Follow GAO's 12-step process: define purpose, plan, establish a technical baseline and WBS, set ground rules, collect data, develop a point estimate, then run sensitivity and risk analysis before documenting and presenting. A reliable estimate must be comprehensive, well documented, accurate, and credible.

Choose by program maturity and data availability. Use analogy early when a similar system exists, parametric when you have cost drivers and historical data but no detailed design, and engineering build-up for mature designs where bottom-up accuracy matters most.

Run sensitivity analysis to rank key drivers, then apply three-point or risk-driver inputs through Monte Carlo simulation to produce a cost distribution. Read a confidence level off the S curve and size contingency as the gap above the point estimate.

No, schedule estimating and schedule risk analysis are deliberately delegated to the companion GAO Schedule Assessment Guide (GAO-16-89G). This pack focuses on cost estimating, cost risk, and earned value management.

It covers the three core measures BCWS, BCWP, and ACWP, plus derived indexes CPI, SPI, and TCPI, EAC forecasting, the performance measurement baseline, integrated baseline reviews, and EIA-748's 32 system guidelines.

It paraphrases rather than reproduces referenced standards like EIA-748, MIL-STD-881D, and the Green Book, and omits embedded source figures and tables. It reflects US federal acquisition best practice, not binding regulation.