hdd

Formulate testable hypotheses and grade evidence to diagnose uncertain system failures.

2|Updated Apr 6, 2026
One-click install
npx skills add https://github.com/augustscl/awesome-xiawang-skills --skill hdd-augustscl
Or copy as Structured Prompt for Agent
Please help me install this Agent Skill.
Skill: hdd
Source: https://github.com/augustscl/awesome-xiawang-skills/tree/main/hdd
Command: npx skills add https://github.com/augustscl/awesome-xiawang-skills --skill hdd-augustscl

SYSTEM DOCUMENTATION & REQUIREMENTS

What problem does it solve?

HDD (Hypothesis-Driven Development) helps teams and individuals diagnose ambiguous failures, choose between competing solutions, and avoid costly, incorrect changes by forcing testable hypotheses and evidence-based decisions. It prevents wasted effort caused by unchecked assumptions and guess-and-fix cycles by turning uncertainty into verifiable experiments.

Core Features & Use Cases

  • Hypothesis formulation & priors: Teach how to state hypotheses explicitly, assign prior probabilities, and record the basis for those priors.
  • Evidence grading & reproducibility: Provide a graded evidence model (V1–V5) and require reproducible tests (V1/V2) before proceeding.
  • Test-first workflow: Guide users through Plan Test (PT), Acceptance Test Design (AT Design), Development (DEV), AT Run, and E2E, with clear rollback rules.
  • Use cases: Incident triage for flaky services, architecture or vendor selection with controlled spikes, root-cause analysis for unexpected behavior, and converting vague bug reports into verifiable test cases.

Quick Start

Apply HDD to diagnose a failing service by listing 3 testable hypotheses, specifying observable falsification criteria for each, designing a minimal verification test, and running the highest-impact test first.

Frequently Asked Questions about hdd

High-intent search queries and answers about installing and using this skill.

FAQPage Schema
How do I find the root cause of a flaky service incident?

To find the root cause of a flaky service, formulate 3 testable hypotheses with explicit falsification criteria, then run the highest-impact verification test first to isolate the failure.

What is hypothesis-driven development for software debugging?

Hypothesis-driven debugging is a method that diagnoses uncertain software failures by assigning prior probabilities to hypotheses and requiring verifiable, reproducible tests before making code changes.

How do I convert vague bug reports into verifiable test cases?

Convert vague bug reports into verifiable test cases by applying a test-first workflow: define observable falsification criteria, design a minimal acceptance test, and execute it before development.

Can I use hypothesis testing for architecture and vendor selection?

Yes, you can use hypothesis testing for architecture and vendor selection by running controlled spikes as verifiable experiments to evaluate competing solutions and avoid incorrect changes.

What is the V1-V5 evidence grading model in root-cause analysis?

The V1-V5 evidence grading model categorizes reproducibility levels, requiring V1 or V2 reproducible tests to be passed before proceeding to development or end-to-end testing.

When should I not use guess-and-fix cycles for regression analysis?

Avoid guess-and-fix cycles for regression analysis when outcomes are uncertain, and instead use acceptance-test-driven progression rules with clear rollback criteria to prevent wasted effort.