hypothesis-elimination

Root cause analysis for production incidents requires systematically eliminating competing hypotheses through evidence-based reasoning. You generate multiple hypotheses, gather discriminating evidence, and eliminate alternatives until the true cause is confirmed.

Bug diagnosis narrowing works best by generating 8-15 hypotheses, designing an evidence hierarchy to test them, and systematically eliminating alternatives. This structured approach prevents premature fixation on a single unverified cause.

Debugging an incident starts by describing the observed symptom, then generating 8-15 hypotheses. You then gather discriminating evidence to systematically eliminate all but one hypothesis before confirming the root cause.

Evidence-based reasoning eliminates system failure hypotheses by ranking evidence by its discriminating power. Evidence that contradicts a hypothesis eliminates it, systematically narrowing the possibilities until only the true root cause remains.

Systematic hypothesis elimination supports post-incident review by memorializing findings. The process documents the generated hypotheses, the evidence used for elimination, and the confirmed root cause to prevent future recurrence.