hypothesis

Create testable product hypotheses with belief, user segment, metrics, and timeframe.

5|2|Updated Mar 27, 2026
One-click install
npx skills add https://github.com/tarunccet/pm-skills --skill hypothesis-tarunccet
Or copy as Structured Prompt for Agent
Please help me install this Agent Skill.
Skill: hypothesis
Source: https://github.com/tarunccet/pm-skills/tree/main/pm-product-discovery/skills/hypothesis
Command: npx skills add https://github.com/tarunccet/pm-skills --skill hypothesis-tarunccet

SYSTEM DOCUMENTATION & REQUIREMENTS

What problem does it solve?

A structured approach to turning product beliefs into falsifiable hypotheses that guide experiments and learning.

Core Features & Use Cases

  • Defines a precise belief with intervention, mechanism, and outcome.
  • Guides segmentation, metrics, baselines, targets, and timeframes for experiments.
  • Supports a formal validation plan (A/B tests, prototype tests, fake doors) and a decision framework.

Quick Start

Write a testable hypothesis for your current assumption, including the target user segment and a concrete metric.

Frequently Asked Questions about hypothesis

High-intent search queries and answers about installing and using this skill.

FAQPage Schema
How do I turn a product belief into a testable hypothesis?

To turn a product belief into a testable hypothesis, you define the intervention, mechanism, and outcome. This process structures your assumption into a falsifiable format by specifying the user segment, metrics, baselines, and targets for measurable validation.

What is the best way to structure a product validation plan for a new feature?

The best way to structure a product validation plan is to document a formal framework that includes the belief, user segment, baseline metrics, target outcomes, and timeframe. This specifies your validation method, such as A/B tests, prototype tests, or fake doors.

How do you define metrics and baselines for a lean startup experiment?

Defining metrics and baselines for a lean startup experiment requires identifying a specific user segment and establishing a concrete baseline. You then set a measurable target metric and a defined timeframe to evaluate the outcome of your intervention accurately.

When do I need a formal decision framework for product management risk management?

You need a formal decision framework for product management risk management when you must evaluate assumptions before development. It helps document the risk, validation plan, and measurable outcomes required to proceed confidently from a problem statement to experimentation.

Does this hypothesis development process work for fake door experiments?

Yes, this hypothesis development process supports fake door experiments. It allows you to define the belief, user segment, and measurable target metrics upfront, ensuring your fake door test yields structured, falsifiable data for your decision framework.