hypotheticals-counterfactuals

Generate and evaluate hypothetical scenarios for strategic decision-making.

142|20|Updated Oct 22, 2025

Search Tags:#decision making #strategic thinking #scenario planning #risk analysis #counterfactuals #pre-mortem

Ready to run

npx skills add https://github.com/lyndonkl/claude --skill hypotheticals-counterfactuals

💬 Prompt for ChatGPT / Claude Chat▼

Please help me install this Agent Skill.
Skill: hypotheticals-counterfactuals
Source: https://github.com/lyndonkl/claude/tree/main/skills/hypotheticals-counterfactuals
Command: npx skills add https://github.com/lyndonkl/claude --skill hypotheticals-counterfactuals

SYSTEM DOCUMENTATION & REQUIREMENTS

💡 This Skill includes scripts (resource) and references (resource) components.

What problem does it solve?

This Skill helps you rigorously explore alternative scenarios, understand causal relationships by examining past decisions, and stress-test strategies against uncertainty.

Core Features & Use Cases

Counterfactual Analysis: Understand "what if" past decisions were different to learn from history.
Scenario Planning: Develop multiple plausible future scenarios (optimistic, baseline, pessimistic) to prepare for different market conditions.
Pre-Mortem Analysis: Imagine a project failing and work backward to identify and mitigate risks before they occur.
Use Case: A startup is deciding whether to pivot to a new market. Use this Skill to run a pre-mortem to identify potential failure points of the pivot and explore counterfactuals of past growth to inform the decision.

Quick Start

Use the hypotheticals-counterfactuals skill to explore the scenario 'what if we had launched in Europe first instead of the US?'.

Frequently Asked Questions about hypotheticals-counterfactuals

High-intent search queries and answers about installing and using this skill.

FAQPage Schema

How do I run a pre-mortem analysis to identify project risks?▼

Pre-mortem analysis involves imagining a project failing and working backward to identify and mitigate risks. This Skill generates structured hypothetical scenarios to stress-test strategies and surface potential failure points before they occur.

What is counterfactual reasoning and how does it apply to strategic decision-making?▼

Counterfactual reasoning explores alternative pasts by asking 'what if' past decisions were different. It helps understand causal relationships, learn from history, and rigorously test assumptions to inform future strategic decision-making.

How do I develop multiple plausible future scenarios for market conditions?▼

Scenario planning develops optimistic, baseline, and pessimistic future scenarios to prepare for varying market conditions. This Skill evaluates hypothetical situations and tests assumptions to support strategic robustness against uncertainty.

Can I use this to stress-test a market pivot before committing?▼

Yes, you can stress-test a market pivot by generating hypothetical scenarios and running a pre-mortem to identify potential failure points. This allows you to explore counterfactuals of past growth to mitigate risks and validate strategic assumptions.

What is the best way to test assumptions against uncertainty in strategic planning?▼

The best way to test assumptions is through structured thought experiments that evaluate hypothetical scenarios and identify causal links. This Skill facilitates scenario planning and pre-mortem analysis to support strategic robustness and risk mitigation.

When should I avoid using counterfactual analysis for risk mitigation?▼

Counterfactual analysis may be less effective when historical data is sparse or when causal links are purely speculative. It is designed for structured scenario planning and stress-testing strategies against uncertainty, not predicting exact outcomes.