ir-gravity-model

What problem does it solve?

This Skill helps you perform international relations quantitative research by estimating gravity-style trade relationships (including zero trade flows) and linking them to regional trade agreements (RTAs) and bilateral news event tone from GDELT.

Core Features & Use Cases

• PPML gravity estimation: Estimate bilateral trade flows with Poisson Pseudo-Maximum Likelihood to remain consistent with zeros and heteroscedasticity, using exporter/importer/year fixed effects.
• RTA trade effect measurement: Capture trade creation vs trade diversion using an RTA-in-force variable (and a framework for interpreting dyadic RTA exposure).
• GDELT dyadic event aggregation: Download (GDELT 1.0 CSV daily exports), aggregate events to monthly/annual dyad-periods, and compute conflict/cooperation metrics using GoldsteinScale and AvgTone.
• Workflow integration: Load COW bilateral trade data, merge CEPII GeoDist controls (distance/contiguity/language proxies), optionally merge GDP and RTA datasets, and compare PPML vs log-OLS as a robustness check.

Quick Start

Estimate a PPML gravity model linking dyadic trade (including zeros) with bilateral distance and RTA exposure while aggregating GDELT event tone to dyad-month level for additional interpretation.