What problem does it solve?
Investors struggle to determine where a company and its core industry sit in the fixed-asset investment (Juglar) cycle, often misreading price action or valuation as cycle position. This Skill produces a structured, probability-weighted stage classification grounded in demand, pricing, margins, capex, inventory, capacity, customer behavior, and market reaction evidence.
Core Features & Use Cases
- Five-Stage Classification: Assigns probabilities across recovery, expansion, overheating, downturn, and clearing stages, with a confidence level for the most likely stage.
- Eight-Dimension Scoring: Scores demand, ASP, margins, capex, inventory, capacity pressure, customer behavior, and capital-market reaction on a -2 to +2 scale with cited evidence.
- Divergence Analysis: Separately identifies industry cycle stage, company operating stage, and stock pricing stage to surface mispricing opportunities.
- Use Case: Ask whether NVDA or a memory-chip maker is in an overheating phase; receive stage probabilities, an 8-dimension score table, counter-evidence, migration signals, and Mermaid visualizations of the cycle position.
Quick Start
Use the juglar-cycle-stock-stage skill to classify MU and its memory industry across Juglar cycle stages with probabilities, evidence, and investment implications.
