macro-research

What problem does it solve?

This Skill removes guesswork from macroeconomic document review by enforcing data-vintage checks, regime identification, dual-sided yield-curve interpretation, and explicit policy transmission assumptions so conclusions are transparent and conditional.

Core Features & Use Cases

• Data vintage & revision risk: Flags whether indicators are advance, revised, or final and documents historical revision profiles to qualify conclusions.
• Regime identification & conditional conclusions: Classifies the macro environment (inflationary, tightening, stagflation, deflationary, expansion) and ties every conclusion to the regime under which it holds.
• Yield curve dual-read & central bank analysis: Provides both bullish and bearish interpretations of yield-curve signals and a structured assessment of central bank forward guidance versus market pricing.
• Use Case: Produce a conditioned report for a CPI release that highlights revision risk, places the result in the current monetary regime, interprets the 2s10s move both ways, and states policy transmission timing.

Quick Start

Analyze the latest CPI release and return a regime-aware summary with a data vintage flag, dual-direction yield curve interpretations, policy stance assessment, and transmission-lag assumptions.