Market Capture Analysis

What problem does it solve?

Venture capital analysts and investment teams often struggle to structure a clear, defensible answer to the foundational question of "how big can this company get?" without relying on vague, unchallenged assumptions. This skill eliminates that ambiguity by providing a standardized framework to map revenue and EBITDA potential across defined market penetration steps, with every assumption explicitly named for stakeholder review.

Core Features & Use Cases

• Standardized Penetration Grid: Structures revenue and EBITDA calculations across 8 penetration steps (1%, 3%, 5%, 10%, 25%, 35%, 50%, 60%) for TAM, SAM, and SOM market definitions, producing up to 144 data points to inform investment theses.
• Assumption Transparency: Enforces explicit citation of all core inputs including pricing, business model, unit of sale, and EBITDA margins, eliminating hidden assumptions that undermine memo credibility.
• Sibling Skill Integration: Pairs seamlessly with the timeline-scenario-analysis skill to validate not just the size of the prize, but the realistic path to capturing it, avoiding static, unachievable market projections.
• Use Case: A VC analyst evaluating a B2B SaaS startup can use this skill to build a memo section showing the company's $120M revenue potential at 10% SAM penetration, with all $99/seat pricing and 22% EBITDA margin assumptions clearly stated for partnership debate.

Quick Start

Use the market-capture-analysis skill to build a revenue and EBITDA penetration grid for the target B2B startup using their stated $99 per-seat monthly pricing, 22% EBITDA margin assumption, and $1.2B SAM size, with the 10% SAM penetration cell marked as the base case for the investment memo.