market-sizing

Calculate TAM using both top-down industry reports and bottom-up customer count times ARPU, then filter TAM by geography and segment to get SAM. Estimate SOM from realistic capture rates based on comparable company growth benchmarks, and present conservative, base, and optimistic scenarios.

Top-down sizing starts from an industry report's total market figure and narrows it down. Bottom-up sizing multiplies the number of potential customers by average revenue per customer. Bottom-up estimates are generally more trustworthy for niche markets.

Ground SOM in comparable company growth rates, typical market penetration for your go-to-market model, and competitive dynamics. Provide a conservative, base, and optimistic range rather than a single arbitrary percentage of SAM.

Flag the missing data explicitly and provide a placeholder range instead of guessing. Note what research would increase confidence, such as primary interviews with target buyers to validate ARPU assumptions.

Round numbers appropriately, such as writing $4.2M instead of $4,237,891, because false precision erodes credibility. Every figure should trace back to a source or a visible calculation, and single-source data points should be flagged as low confidence.