market-sizing

To calculate TAM, SAM, and SOM for market entry, combine top-down, bottom-up, and value-theory approaches to produce a defensible range. Validate demand first, then apply explicit gates for geography, channel, and eligibility to size the opportunity accurately.

Validating demand before sizing a market requires applying explicit gates across geography, channel reachability, and customer eligibility. This ensures actual evidence supports your sizing numbers before multiplication, preventing over-optimism in your TAM, SAM, and SOM estimates.

A defensible go/no-go decision framework requires deriving a defensible market size range using triangulated approaches, documenting load-bearing assumptions, establishing a viability floor, and validating demand before finalizing the market entry verdict.

Triangulation in market sizing combines top-down, bottom-up, and value-theory methods to produce a defendable market range. Using multiple approaches prevents reliance on a single flawed model, exposing load-bearing assumptions and ensuring your TAM, SAM, and SOM estimates hold up under scrutiny.

Use value-theory market sizing alongside bottom-up estimates when entering new markets without existing volume data. Value-theory sizes the opportunity based on delivered customer value and pricing assumptions, complementing bottom-up volume multiplication to create a more defensible TAM, SAM, and SOM range.

Market sizing requires documenting channel reachability assumptions even without existing data. You must explicitly state pricing and channel assumptions as load-bearing factors, ensuring your SAM and SOM calculations remain defensible despite data gaps in your go/no-go verdict.