markov-regime-features

Diagnose constant Markov regime features in RL observations using InferenceObservationBuilder.

3|Updated Dec 10, 2025
One-click install
npx skills add https://github.com/smith6jt-cop/Skills_Registry --skill markov-regime-features
Or copy as Structured Prompt for Agent
Please help me install this Agent Skill.
Skill: markov-regime-features
Source: https://github.com/smith6jt-cop/Skills_Registry/tree/main/plugins/trading/markov-regime-features/skills/markov-regime-features
Command: npx skills add https://github.com/smith6jt-cop/Skills_Registry --skill markov-regime-features

SYSTEM DOCUMENTATION & REQUIREMENTS

What problem does it solve?

RL observation plots showed constant Markov regime features due to uniform priors or stale state; this Skill guides you to implement stateful Markov tracking to produce dynamic regime probabilities.

Core Features & Use Cases

  • Use InferenceObservationBuilder for stateful Markov tracking across price history.
  • Build observations so vol_probs and trend_probs evolve with data.
  • Visualize regime evolution and diagnose stationary priors.

Quick Start

Create an InferenceObservationBuilder(window=100, use_gpu_markov=True) and call build(prices=..., high=..., low=...). Access vol_probs and trend_probs to inspect regime probabilities.

Frequently Asked Questions about markov-regime-features

High-intent search queries and answers about installing and using this skill.

FAQPage Schema
How do I fix constant Markov regime features in RL observations?

Markov regime features remain uniform when using default priors without stateful tracking. Use InferenceObservationBuilder with window=100 and use_gpu_markov=True to maintain Markov state across price history, allowing vol_prob and trend_prob to evolve dynamically instead of staying frozen.

What causes uniform volatility and trend probabilities in RL observation heatmaps?

Uniform probabilities indicate stale or missing Markov state. The Markov regime inference requires stateful tracking that updates vol_prob_low/med/high and trend_prob_down/neutral/up based on incoming price data; without it, priors never change.

How do I implement stateful Markov tracking for price history?

Create an InferenceObservationBuilder, configure it with window=100 and use_gpu_markov=True for GPU acceleration, then call build() with prices, high, and low arrays. The builder maintains state across calls and outputs evolving vol_probs and trend_probs reflecting current regime estimates.

Can I visualize how Markov regime probabilities change over time?

Yes. After building observations with InferenceObservationBuilder, inspect vol_probs and trend_probs across your observation sequence to see regime evolution. This reveals whether probabilities adapt to price volatility and trend changes or remain stationary.

Do I need GPU acceleration for Markov regime inference?

GPU acceleration is optional but recommended for performance. Set use_gpu_markov=True in InferenceObservationBuilder to enable it; this accelerates stateful inference across large price histories, though CPU execution is supported.

What window size should I use for Markov state tracking?

Window=100 is the recommended starting point for InferenceObservationBuilder; it balances Markov state freshness with sufficient historical context to estimate volatility and trend regimes from price movements.