Decompose merger arbitrage spreads and extract market-implied probabilities.
npx skills add https://github.com/tmcga/alpha-stack --skill merger-arb
Please help me install this Agent Skill. Skill: merger-arb Source: https://github.com/tmcga/alpha-stack/tree/main/skills/merger-arb Command: npx skills add https://github.com/tmcga/alpha-stack --skill merger-arb
This Skill provides a rigorous, end-to-end framework for analyzing merger arbitrage and event-driven corporate actions by decomposing spreads into edge components and translating qualitative risk assessments into quantitative probabilities.
Analyze a newly announced deal using the full framework, decompose the spread, score risk factors, size with Kelly, model hedges, and generate a trade ticket.
High-intent search queries and answers about installing and using this skill.
Merger arbitrage spread decomposition calculates gross and annualized spreads, then extracts market-implied probabilities by separating deal-break risk, time value, financing costs, and residual market risk to evaluate expected value across multiple scenarios.
Kelly sizing for binary event-driven outcomes calculates optimal position weights based on the estimated probability of deal close and the expected value, generating a portfolio-ready trade ticket with specific risk scores and hedge structures.
Yes, the framework handles cash, stock-for-stock, CVR, collar structures, spin-offs, activist campaigns, tender offers, and rights issues by modeling stock-for-stock hedges and extracting market-implied probabilities for each specific deal type.
Risk management in a merger arbitrage portfolio involves assembling a diversified event book of 20-40 positions, performing stress tests, monitoring correlation and beta, and enforcing portfolio constraints to control deal-break and residual market risk.
Merger arbitrage modeling applies to activist campaigns and tender offers by decomposing event-driven spreads, scoring risk factors, calculating enterprise value, and generating standardized trade tickets with monitoring timelines and milestones.
AlvaroBianoAutomate merger model construction in Excel to quantify accretion and dilution.
jwangkunTrack A-share M&A deal milestones, deadlines, and action items.
skeny65Assess stock risk and produce position sizing recommendations from volatility and drawdown metrics.
JacobHsuAnalyzes corporate events to generate trading insights for A-share markets.
