monte-carlo-duration-chart

Monte Carlo duration forecasts are visualized using an 8-bar percentile histogram that renders P10 through P98 bars to illustrate expected delivery timelines. The chart highlights the P85 Service Level Expectation reference and derives date projections from the current date.

The P85 Service Level Expectation reference is a highlighted percentile bar within the Monte Carlo duration histogram that serves as the commitment threshold for delivery-date projections. It is rendered alongside other percentile details to quantify time-to-completion uncertainty.

To generate a Monte Carlo duration chart, you process forecast_monte_carlo data with mode set to duration and render it using Recharts. The skill implements a dedicated duration-chart workflow aligned with mcs-charts-base components to produce the 8-bar percentile histogram.

Monte Carlo duration forecasting applies directly to backlog sizing, capacity assessment, and delivery-date commitments. The histogram provides percentile-based date projections derived from today's date to support these planning tasks.

The Monte Carlo duration chart integrates with React and mcs-charts-base UI primitives to render the percentile histogram. This integration ensures consistent styling and interaction across the forecast visualization components.

An 8-bar percentile histogram visualizes the full probability distribution of Monte Carlo duration forecasts from P10 to P98, exposing time-to-completion uncertainty. This reveals the range of expected delivery timelines rather than relying on a single misleading date.