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Drock91
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moonpay-scout

Match Polymarket and Kalshi events and calculate fee-adjusted arbitrage edges.

Updated Apr 3, 2026
Search Tags:#trading#kalshi#market-scout#prediction-markets#polymarket#arbitrage#moonpay
One-click install
npx skills add https://github.com/Drock91/ows-hackathon --skill moonpay-scout-drock91
Or copy as Structured Prompt for Agent▼
Please help me install this Agent Skill.
Skill: moonpay-scout
Source: https://github.com/Drock91/ows-hackathon/tree/main/.agents/skills/moonpay-scout
Command: npx skills add https://github.com/Drock91/ows-hackathon --skill moonpay-scout-drock91

SYSTEM DOCUMENTATION & REQUIREMENTS

What problem does it solve?

Identifies executable arbitrage and high-conviction alpha across Polymarket and Kalshi by matching the same underlying events, using bid/ask prices and fee-adjusted math, and surfacing ranked opportunities ready for execution or manual follow-up.

Core Features & Use Cases

  • Parallel Market Scanning: Search Polymarket and Kalshi for the same topic or pull trending markets from both platforms.
  • Executable Arb Math: Use bid/ask prices and platform fee rules (Polymarket 2% payout adjustment) to calculate pure arbitrage and soft-arb directions explicitly.
  • Alpha & Ranking: Perform gap analysis, liquidity and date-match checks, momentum review, and produce a ranked list of pure arbs, soft arbs, and alpha trades with conviction levels.
  • Execution Integration: Prepare and optionally execute the Polymarket leg via MoonPay CLI while providing manual instructions for Kalshi legs.
  • Use Case: A trader wants a daily scout for USD policy odds across both platforms; this Skill finds matched markets, computes edge after fees, and recommends the best risk-free or high-conviction trades.

Quick Start

Scan for arbitrage on "US CPI next month" across Polymarket and Kalshi and return the top ranked opportunities with explicit bid/ask math and execution steps.

Frequently Asked Questions about moonpay-scout

High-intent search queries and answers about installing and using this skill.

FAQPage Schema
How do I find cross-platform prediction market arbitrage between Polymarket and Kalshi?▼

Cross-platform arbitrage is found by matching identical events across Polymarket and Kalshi and calculating executable bid/ask edges. The process applies fee-adjusted math, liquidity thresholds, and resolution-date checks to surface ranked, risk-free opportunities.

How does fee-adjusted arbitrage math work for prediction markets?▼

Fee-adjusted arbitrage math applies platform-specific fee rules, such as Polymarket's 2% payout adjustment, to bid/ask prices. This calculates the true executable edge and filters out apparent price discrepancies where fees eliminate the profit margin.

Can I execute Polymarket arbitrage trades directly through MoonPay CLI?▼

You can execute Polymarket arbitrage legs directly through MoonPay CLI by preparing and placing order commands. This requires an authenticated Polymarket wallet within the MoonPay environment, while Kalshi legs require manual execution.

What inputs do I need to start scanning prediction markets for arbitrage opportunities?▼

Scanning prediction markets for arbitrage requires bid/ask price inputs, platform fee models, and defined liquidity thresholds. MoonPay CLI access with an authenticated Polymarket wallet is also required for automated order placement.

What is the difference between pure arbitrage and soft arbitrage in prediction market scouting?▼

Pure arbitrage in prediction market scouting yields risk-free profit from exact bid/ask gaps, while soft arbitrage indicates high-conviction directional alpha. Scouting ranks both types using gap analysis, liquidity checks, and momentum reviews.

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