panel-estimand-audit

Validates that panel study estimands stay stated, stable, and aligned with eligibility and denominators.

1|Updated Dec 13, 2025
One-click install
npx skills add https://github.com/ZK-Theory/TDL --skill panel-estimand-audit-zk-theory
Or copy as Structured Prompt for Agent
Please help me install this Agent Skill.
Skill: panel-estimand-audit
Source: https://github.com/ZK-Theory/TDL/tree/main/.agents/skills/panel-estimand-audit
Command: npx skills add https://github.com/ZK-Theory/TDL --skill panel-estimand-audit-zk-theory

SYSTEM DOCUMENTATION & REQUIREMENTS

What problem does it solve? Panel and longitudinal analyses suffer from silent estimand drift: a rerun framed as routine quietly changes what is being estimated, so the new number is not comparable to the old one even though both pass their tests. This Skill audits the estimand definition to catch that drift before results are reported. ## Core Features & Use Cases - Estimand Statement Check: Confirms the target quantity (ATE/ATT, escape probability, transition rate, ICC) is written down explicitly rather than left implicit in code. - Stability and Alignment Audit: Verifies the estimand is unchanged across reruns, the eligibility rule matches the estimand, the denominator reflects the defined population, and weighting/clustering (IPW, MICE, cluster-robust SE) matches the identifying assumptions. - Structured Verdict: Outputs an estimand statement plus an ALIGNED / DRIFTED / UNDERSPECIFIED rating naming any mismatch. - Use Case: A panel rerun framed as routine changed the estimand while keeping the same eligibility rule; the audit flags the result as DRIFTED so it is not reported as comparable to the prior run. ## Quick Start Audit this panel analysis rerun to confirm the estimand is stated, unchanged from the prior run, and aligned with the eligibility rule and denominator.

Frequently Asked Questions about panel-estimand-audit

High-intent search queries and answers about installing and using this skill.

FAQPage Schema
How do I check if a panel analysis estimand changed between runs?

Compare the explicitly stated estimand (ATE/ATT, escape probability, transition rate, ICC) from the current run against the prior run's statement. If it changed, a pre-registration amendment is required; otherwise the new estimate is not comparable to the old one.

What is silent estimand drift in longitudinal studies?

Silent estimand drift occurs when a rerun framed as routine quietly changes what is being estimated while keeping the same eligibility rule. Both runs may pass their tests, but the numbers measure different quantities and are not comparable.

How do I verify eligibility rules match the estimand?

Check that the inclusion/eligibility rule does not introduce conditioning that quietly redefines the target population, and confirm the denominator is the population the estimand is defined over rather than a convenience count.

Does this audit cover weighting and clustering assumptions?

Yes. The audit verifies that IPW, MICE, and cluster handling are consistent with the estimand's identifying assumptions, referencing contracts such as normalised IPW trimming, svyglm cluster-robust SE, Rubin pooling, and MICE convergence rules.

When should an estimand change require a pre-registration amendment?

Whenever the estimand must differ from the prior run, a pre-registration amendment is required before proceeding. This keeps the change documented and prevents a drifted estimate from being reported as comparable to earlier results.