payout-policy-analysis

Analyze dividends and buybacks against FCFE to test payout sustainability and management trust.

Updated Sep 9, 2026
One-click install
npx skills add https://github.com/lyndonkl/hermesworld --skill payout-policy-analysis-lyndonkl
Or copy as Structured Prompt for Agent
Please help me install this Agent Skill.
Skill: payout-policy-analysis
Source: https://github.com/lyndonkl/hermesworld/tree/main/packages/intrinsic-valuation-analyst/skills/corporate-finance/payout-policy-analysis
Command: npx skills add https://github.com/lyndonkl/hermesworld --skill payout-policy-analysis-lyndonkl

SYSTEM DOCUMENTATION & REQUIREMENTS

💡 This Skill includes scripts (resource) and references (resource) components.

What problem does it solve? Judging whether a company's dividend or buyback policy is sustainable requires more than a payout ratio: you must measure cash actually returned (dividends plus buybacks), compute free cash flow to equity over multiple years, assess whether management earned its cost of equity, and project whether future FCFE can fund the payout. Doing this by hand invites well-known errors like ignoring buybacks or using the wrong FCFE variant. ## Core Features & Use Cases - FCFE history engine: Computes three FCFE variants (pre-debt, actual-debt, target-debt-ratio) over 1-10 years and classifies the firm as a cash accumulator or overpayer. - Trust and dividend matrix: Scores management via ROE versus CAPM required return and Jensen's alpha, then places the firm in the affordability-versus-project-quality quadrant with a prescription. - Sustainability projection: Forecasts five years of FCFE and dividends, solves for the maximum sustainable dividend growth rate, and sizes buyback capacity. - Peers, market norms, and banks: Benchmarks against peer groups and Damodaran's cross-sectional regressions, with a dedicated regulatory-capital FCFE mode for banks and insurers. - Use Case: Given five years of Disney's financial statements as JSON, run the fcfe-history, trust, and matrix subcommands to determine whether Disney should raise, hold, or cut its payout. ## Quick Start Ask the agent to analyze the attached company's dividend and buyback policy against its FCFE using the payout-policy-analysis skill.

Frequently Asked Questions about payout-policy-analysis

High-intent search queries and answers about installing and using this skill.

FAQPage Schema
How do I test whether a company's dividend is sustainable?

Compute FCFE over five years, compare it with dividends plus buybacks, then project forward. The sustainability subcommand forecasts FCFE and dividends, reports the first shortfall year, and solves for the maximum sustainable dividend growth rate.

How to calculate FCFE for dividend policy analysis?

FCFE equals net income minus reinvestment, where reinvestment is net capital expenditure plus the change in non-cash working capital. The engine computes three variants: pre-debt, actual-debt, and target-debt-ratio, with the target-ratio variant as the sustainable measure.

Why does payout analysis need buybacks and not just dividends?

Buybacks are roughly 60% of cash returned in the US, so dividend-only analysis misclassifies firms. A company with a 19% dividend payout ratio can be returning 83% of earnings once buybacks are included on both sides of the comparison.

Does the FCFE formula work for banks and insurers?

No, the standard cap-ex formula produces nonsense for banks because debt is part of the product. The bank-fcfe subcommand instead defines reinvestment as the increase in regulatory capital needed to support balance-sheet growth.

What Python packages does the payout engine require?

None. The script is pure standard library Python 3 with no third-party dependencies, so it runs anywhere without installation. Inputs arrive as JSON via stdin or a file, and outputs are JSON.

Why does cash returned as a percentage of FCFE come back null?

The ratio is meaningless when FCFE is zero or negative, so the engine returns null with a reason instead of a misleading negative number. Read the surplus or deficit in currency instead.