probability-calibration

What problem does it solve?

This Skill verifies and corrects the alignment between predicted win probabilities and actual outcomes, enhancing the reliability of sports models.

Core Features & Use Cases

• Calibration Verification: Generates reliability diagrams to assess how well the model's probabilities reflect real-world results.
• Score Calculation: Computes Brier scores and calibration errors to quantify probability quality.
• Model Adjustment: Applies Platt scaling or isotonic regression to improve calibration based on historical data.
• Use Case: A sports analyst has a trained model and wants to verify if its predicted probabilities are trustworthy before placing bets or making in-game decisions, ensuring more accurate expected value calculations.

Quick Start

Use the probability calibration skill to evaluate the calibration of your model predictions and apply corrections if necessary.