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probability-expected-value-calculation

Calculate expected value from outcomes, probabilities, and values to compare options under uncertainty.

212|23|Updated May 23, 2026
Search Tags:#decision making#risk assessment#tradeoff analysis#expected value#asymmetric risk#probability modeling#catastrophic downside
One-click install
npx skills add https://github.com/human-avatar/skills-for-humanity --skill probability-expected-value-calculation
Or copy as Structured Prompt for Agent▼
Please help me install this Agent Skill.
Skill: probability-expected-value-calculation
Source: https://github.com/human-avatar/skills-for-humanity/tree/main/skills/probability-expected-value-calculation
Command: npx skills add https://github.com/human-avatar/skills-for-humanity --skill probability-expected-value-calculation

SYSTEM DOCUMENTATION & REQUIREMENTS

What problem does it solve?

This Skill helps you decide between options under uncertainty by calculating expected value (EV) from outcomes, probabilities, and values—so you can compare tradeoffs beyond the most likely scenario.

Core Features & Use Cases

  • EV calculation: Computes EV by multiplying each outcome’s value by its probability and summing across a full outcome distribution.
  • Asymmetric risk check: Flags when EV favors an option despite a “fat downside tail” that intuition might miss.
  • Catastrophic downside override: Detects outcomes that are unacceptable regardless of probability and overrides EV comparison when needed.
  • Use case: Decide whether a project, investment, or policy “is worth it” when returns are uncertain and losses are uneven.

Quick Start

Ask the skill to compute EV for “option A vs option B” by listing the outcomes, their probabilities, and a single consistent value unit, including a “do nothing” option.

Frequently Asked Questions about probability-expected-value-calculation

High-intent search queries and answers about installing and using this skill.

FAQPage Schema
How do I calculate expected value to compare options under uncertainty?▼

Expected value calculation multiplies each outcome's value by its probability and sums the results across a full distribution to compare tradeoffs beyond the most likely scenario.

What happens to expected value when there is a catastrophic downside?▼

A catastrophic downside override detects unacceptable outcomes regardless of probability and overrides standard expected value comparison when losses are uneven or potentially ruinous.

How do I check for asymmetric risk in an investment tradeoff analysis?▼

Asymmetric risk checks flag when expected value favors an option despite a fat downside tail that intuition might miss, ensuring you evaluate whether upside justifies downside.

What inputs do I need to provide for an expected value calculation?▼

You must provide mutually exclusive and exhaustive outcomes, their corresponding probabilities, and a single consistent value unit for all options, including a do nothing baseline.

When should I use expected value modeling instead of just picking the most likely outcome?▼

Expected value modeling is necessary when returns are uncertain and losses are uneven, allowing you to apply probability modeling to evaluate whether a project or investment is worth it.

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