probability-expected-value-calculation

What problem does it solve?

This Skill helps you decide between options under uncertainty by calculating expected value (EV) from outcomes, probabilities, and values—so you can compare tradeoffs beyond the most likely scenario.

Core Features & Use Cases

• EV calculation: Computes EV by multiplying each outcome’s value by its probability and summing across a full outcome distribution.
• Asymmetric risk check: Flags when EV favors an option despite a “fat downside tail” that intuition might miss.
• Catastrophic downside override: Detects outcomes that are unacceptable regardless of probability and overrides EV comparison when needed.
• Use case: Decide whether a project, investment, or policy “is worth it” when returns are uncertain and losses are uneven.

Quick Start

Ask the skill to compute EV for “option A vs option B” by listing the outcomes, their probabilities, and a single consistent value unit, including a “do nothing” option.