probability-mean-reversion

Name: probability-mean-reversion
Availability: InStock
Author: Superior-Trade

Detect overreactions in Polymarket market slugs and initiate mean reversion trades.

226|9|Updated Mar 8, 2026

Search Tags:#trading strategy #polymarket #mean reversion #probability trading #overreaction

Ready to run

npx skills add https://github.com/Superior-Trade/superior-skills --skill probability-mean-reversion

💬 Prompt for ChatGPT / Claude Chat▼

Please help me install this Agent Skill.
Skill: probability-mean-reversion
Source: https://github.com/Superior-Trade/superior-skills/tree/main/skills/probability-mean-reversion
Command: npx skills add https://github.com/Superior-Trade/superior-skills --skill probability-mean-reversion

SYSTEM DOCUMENTATION & REQUIREMENTS

💡 This Skill includes scripts (resource) components.

What problem does it solve?

This Skill identifies and exploits overreactions in Polymarket outcomes, using mean reversion to profit from price corrections.

Core Features & Use Cases

Overreaction Detection: Analyze market slugs for overreactions in probability outcomes.
Mean Reversion Trading: Enter and exit trades based on price reversion to median levels.
Use Case: If a market slug shows an overreaction with a significant deviation from the rolling median, this Skill can initiate a fade trade to capture price corrections.

Quick Start

Use the probability-mean-reversion skill to initiate a fade trade on a Polymarket market slug when the probability significantly overreacts and stalls away from the recent filled-price range.

Frequently Asked Questions about probability-mean-reversion

High-intent search queries and answers about installing and using this skill.

FAQPage Schema

How do I trade mean reversion on Polymarket probability outcomes?▼

You can fade overreactions by analyzing market slugs for significant deviations from the rolling median filled-price range. This Skill identifies those overreactions in Polymarket outcomes and initiates trades to capture the price corrections.

What is mean reversion in probability trading?▼

Mean reversion in probability trading is the tendency of overreacting market prices to stall and correct back toward their median levels. This Skill detects when Polymarket probability outcomes deviate significantly from recent filled-price ranges to trigger fade trades.

How do I detect overreactions in Polymarket market slugs?▼

Detecting overreactions in Polymarket market slugs requires analyzing historical fills and comparing current probabilities against a rolling median. This Skill processes that data to identify significant deviations signaling an overreaction ready for a fade trade.

Do I need historical fill data to trade mean reversion on Polymarket?▼

Yes, applying mean reversion to probability trading requires access to historical fills and the ability to execute trades at specific price levels. This Skill uses that historical data to determine if a market slug has overreacted and stalled away from its median.

When should I not use a mean reversion strategy for probability trading?▼

Mean reversion strategies are not suitable when Polymarket market slugs lack significant deviation from the rolling median or fail to stall away from the recent filled-price range. Without a clear overreaction, there is no price correction to capture.