probability-mean-reversion

You can fade overreactions by analyzing market slugs for significant deviations from the rolling median filled-price range. This Skill identifies those overreactions in Polymarket outcomes and initiates trades to capture the price corrections.

Mean reversion in probability trading is the tendency of overreacting market prices to stall and correct back toward their median levels. This Skill detects when Polymarket probability outcomes deviate significantly from recent filled-price ranges to trigger fade trades.

Detecting overreactions in Polymarket market slugs requires analyzing historical fills and comparing current probabilities against a rolling median. This Skill processes that data to identify significant deviations signaling an overreaction ready for a fade trade.

Yes, applying mean reversion to probability trading requires access to historical fills and the ability to execute trades at specific price levels. This Skill uses that historical data to determine if a market slug has overreacted and stalled away from its median.

Mean reversion strategies are not suitable when Polymarket market slugs lack significant deviation from the rolling median or fail to stall away from the recent filled-price range. Without a clear overreaction, there is no price correction to capture.