probability-scenario-weighting

What problem does it solve?

This Skill helps you turn vague uncertainty into explicit, decision-ready probabilities by assigning calibrated likelihoods to mutually exclusive scenarios before choosing an action.

Core Features & Use Cases

• Scenario decomposition: Enumerates mutually exclusive and collectively exhaustive scenarios so you can model real uncertainty instead of vague optimism.
• Probability assignment and calibration: Forces probabilities to sum to 100% and checks them against whether you would accept corresponding bets.
• Decision-driving insights: Identifies the key driver for each scenario, the highest-probability and highest-impact cases, and the single most useful information to reduce uncertainty.

Use case example: You’re deciding whether to launch a product feature; scenario weighting clarifies what must be true in each case, what would most change your belief, and which scenarios should drive risk mitigation.

Quick Start

Use probability-scenario-weighting to assign calibrated probabilities to the scenarios you list for your decision, then identify the most useful next information to gather.