What problem does it solve? Valuation teams routinely attach option premiums to opportunities that any competitor can take, overstating company value. This Skill screens claimed real options through three rigorous tests, prices only the survivors, and prevents double counting with the DCF. ## Core Features & Use Cases - Three-Test Gating: Every candidate (patents, undeveloped reserves, expansion rights, exit clauses, equity-as-call) must pass an option-existence test, an exclusivity test with a justified 0-1 factor, and a pricing-feasibility test before any premium is admissible. - Scripted Pricing Engines: All calculations run through the option-valuation-toolkit scripts (black-scholes, binomial, equity-as-option) with auditable JSON payloads, never arithmetic in prose. - Double-Count Detection: Flags growth already inside forecast.json or dcf-result.json that duplicates an option claim, routing each risk to exactly one valuation device. - Use Case: In a biotech valuation, screen four option candidates, reject three for lacking exclusivity barriers, price the surviving patent as a 17-year call scaled by a 0.85 exclusivity factor, and report a sensitivity range instead of a point estimate. ## Quick Start Ask the valuation orchestrator to run the real-options stage on the classified candidates and produce real-options.json and real-options.md with gated, exclusivity-scaled option values.
