recovering-from-failure

Use Scott Belsky's Conviction Test: compare your current conviction in the problem and solution against your original conviction. If conviction has grown, persevere through the messy middle; if it has diminished, pivot or quit. The Skill also provides the Two Signs It's Time to Pivot framework based on retention data.

The Skill includes Todd Jackson's Four Ps framework (persona, problem, promise, product) to isolate the failing element, plus root cause analysis methods and the Startup Failure Warning Signs Checklist derived from real post-mortems like Cascade.

Four strategies derived from 40+ analyzed pivots: go all-in on a feature showing organic pull, productize an internal tool, expand into an adjacent bigger market, or ideate internally via hackathons. Most successful pivots came from narrowing to what already works.

Data from 40+ pivots shows ideation pivots typically happen within 3 months of launch, while hard pivots with live products cluster around the one-year mark. The Skill provides timeline checkpoints at 3 months, 6 months, 1 year, and 2 years.

Key warning signs include persistent lukewarm interest with low retention, growth plateaus, reliance on founder-driven sales rather than inbound demand, ambiguous customer rejections, and running out of good ideas to drive growth.

Use the five-step framework: get ahead of the news, highlight learnings, share the original context and hypothesis, present a clear recommendation for next steps, and separate your identity from the project's outcome.