reference-class-forecasting-skill
CommunityBetter forecasts with reference-class anchoring.
Product & Management#planning#estimation#uncertainty#forecasting#risk-management#project-management#reference-class
AuthorStepowskiEric
Version1.0.0
Installs0
System Documentation
What problem does it solve?
Anchoring estimates to a proven reference class before considering internal plan details helps avoid planning bias and over-optimism.
Core Features & Use Cases
- Reference-class anchoring: establish a base-rate estimate from historical data before applying inside-view reasoning.
- Uncertainty-aware planning: produce range-based forecasts (low–high) with explicit risk factors.
- Decision support: assist stakeholders in setting realistic timelines, budgets, and success criteria for projects.
Quick Start
Provide a baseline outside-view estimate for your current task by first identifying the relevant reference class and then anchoring your estimate to its base rate.
Dependency Matrix
Required Modules
None requiredComponents
Standard package💻 Claude Code Installation
Recommended: Let Claude install automatically. Simply copy and paste the text below to Claude Code.
Please help me install this Skill: Name: reference-class-forecasting-skill Download link: https://github.com/StepowskiEric/Jerrys-agent-skills/archive/main.zip#reference-class-forecasting-skill Please download this .zip file, extract it, and install it in the .claude/skills/ directory.
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