returns-analysis

Model investor-outcome scenarios for private or illiquid investments.

15|7|Updated Aug 6, 2025
One-click install
npx skills add https://github.com/hvkshetry/StewardOS --skill returns-analysis
Or copy as Structured Prompt for Agent
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Skill: returns-analysis
Source: https://github.com/hvkshetry/StewardOS/tree/main/skills/personas/research-analyst/returns-analysis
Command: npx skills add https://github.com/hvkshetry/StewardOS --skill returns-analysis

SYSTEM DOCUMENTATION & REQUIREMENTS

💡 This Skill includes scripts (resource) and references (resource) components.

What problem does it solve?

This Skill automates the complex modeling of investor returns for private or illiquid investments, providing clear insights into potential outcomes under various scenarios.

Core Features & Use Cases

  • Scenario Modeling: Develops bull, base, and bear case scenarios for IRR and MOIC.
  • Sensitivity Analysis: Identifies key drivers impacting returns and calculates break-even points.
  • Use Case: Evaluate a venture capital investment by projecting its performance from entry to exit, considering different market conditions and operational successes to determine its potential profitability.

Quick Start

Model the returns for a private equity investment using entry valuation of $10M, an investment amount of $2M, and a projected hold period of 5 years.

Frequently Asked Questions about returns-analysis

High-intent search queries and answers about installing and using this skill.

FAQPage Schema
How do I model IRR and MOIC for a private equity investment?

You model IRR and MOIC by analyzing entry valuation, hold period, and exit assumptions to generate base, bull, and bear case scenarios. This scenario analysis projects investor outcomes for private or illiquid investments throughout the hold period.

What is sensitivity analysis for private equity returns?

Sensitivity analysis for private equity returns identifies key drivers impacting IRR and MOIC, such as revenue growth and exit multiples. It calculates break-even points to show how operational successes and market conditions affect potential profitability.

How do I run scenario analysis for illiquid investment outcomes?

You run scenario analysis for illiquid investment outcomes by projecting performance under different market conditions. The modeling evaluates entry valuation, hold period, and exit assumptions to determine potential profitability across bull, base, and bear cases.

Do I need financial and market data to project investment outcomes?

Yes, you need financial and market data to project investment outcomes accurately. Access to this data is required to perform reliable sensitivity and scenario analysis on key drivers like revenue growth and exit multiples.

What is the best way to calculate break-even points for venture capital projections?

The best way to calculate break-even points for venture capital projections is through sensitivity analysis on key return drivers. By adjusting revenue growth and exit multiples, you can identify the exact thresholds where the investment reaches break-even IRR and MOIC.

Can I evaluate a venture capital investment using entry valuation and exit assumptions?

Yes, you can evaluate a venture capital investment by modeling entry valuation and exit assumptions alongside a projected hold period. This process generates scenario analysis showing potential profitability under varying market conditions and operational successes.