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risk-adjusted-value

Calculates risk-adjusted expected value from scenario outcomes and probabilities.

Updated Jun 17, 2026
Search Tags:#investment analysis#scenario analysis#probability weighting#expected value#risk-adjusted value
One-click install
npx skills add https://github.com/adriaanmostert1976-lab/adriaan-toolkits --skill risk-adjusted-value
Or copy as Structured Prompt for Agent▼
Please help me install this Agent Skill.
Skill: risk-adjusted-value
Source: https://github.com/adriaanmostert1976-lab/adriaan-toolkits/tree/main/source/modelling-toolkit/risk-adjusted-value
Command: npx skills add https://github.com/adriaanmostert1976-lab/adriaan-toolkits --skill risk-adjusted-value

SYSTEM DOCUMENTATION & REQUIREMENTS

💡 This Skill includes scripts (resource) and references (resource) components.

What problem does it solve?

This Skill addresses the need for a single, actionable number that incorporates uncertainty into investment decisions by applying probability weighting to scenario outcomes.

Core Features & Use Cases

  • Risk-Adjusted Expected Value Calculation: Combines probabilities with scenario outcomes to produce a single expected value.
  • Contribution Table: Identifies which scenario has the largest contribution to the expected value.
  • Probability Sensitivity Analysis: Provides a two-variable Data Table to analyze the impact of varying probabilities.
  • Break-even Probability Analysis: Determines the probability at which the expected value equals the investment hurdle.
  • Use Case: For investment committees seeking a risk-adjusted NPV or boards requiring the probability-weighted return on an investment.

Quick Start

Use the risk-adjusted-value skill to calculate the risk-adjusted expected value for a given investment scenario.

Frequently Asked Questions about risk-adjusted-value

High-intent search queries and answers about installing and using this skill.

FAQPage Schema
How do I calculate risk-adjusted expected value for investment scenarios?▼

Risk-adjusted expected value is calculated by applying probability weighting to base, bull, and bear scenario outcomes, generating a single actionable number that incorporates investment uncertainty.

What is probability sensitivity analysis in investment decisions?▼

Probability sensitivity analysis uses a two-variable data table to measure how varying probabilities for bull and bear scenarios impact the overall expected value of an investment decision.

How do I find the break-even probability for an investment hurdle?▼

Break-even probability is determined by identifying the exact probability at which the probability-weighted expected value equals your required investment hurdle rate.

Can I use scenario analysis in xlsx to identify which outcome drives expected value?▼

Yes, the contribution table identifies which specific scenario outcome has the largest contribution to the overall expected value, utilizing conditional formatting in xlsx.

Does this risk-adjusted value calculation require any external dependencies?▼

No, this calculation requires no external dependencies, utilizing native xlsx conditional formatting and goal seek functions to process base, bull, and bear scenario inputs.

What is the best way to present a probability-weighted return to an investment committee?▼

The best way is providing a single risk-adjusted expected value number alongside a contribution table and probability sensitivity analysis to clearly justify the investment decision.

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