risk-analysis

Calculate VaR and CVaR using Monte Carlo simulations for financial portfolios.

Updated Jul 29, 2026
One-click install
npx skills add https://github.com/santoosaraujo/vibe-trading-claude --skill risk-analysis-santoosaraujo
Or copy as Structured Prompt for Agent
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Skill: risk-analysis
Source: https://github.com/santoosaraujo/vibe-trading-claude/tree/main/.claude/skills/risk-analysis
Command: npx skills add https://github.com/santoosaraujo/vibe-trading-claude --skill risk-analysis-santoosaraujo

SYSTEM DOCUMENTATION & REQUIREMENTS

💡 This Skill requires numpy, pandas, scipy.

What problem does it solve?

This Skill addresses the difficulty of measuring complex financial risks, helping users move beyond simple volatility to understand tail-risk, drawdown potential, and the impact of extreme market scenarios.

Core Features & Use Cases

  • Risk Measurement: Calculate VaR and CVaR using historical, parametric, or Monte Carlo methods.
  • Stress Testing: Evaluate portfolio resilience against historical crises or custom hypothetical shocks.
  • Tail-Risk Analysis: Identify fat-tail risks using Extreme Value Theory (GPD fitting) to detect hidden vulnerabilities.
  • Use Case: A portfolio manager can use this to simulate how a 100bp interest rate hike would impact their current asset allocation before making adjustments.

Quick Start

Use the risk-analysis skill to calculate the 95 percent VaR and perform a stress test on the current portfolio data.

Frequently Asked Questions about risk-analysis

High-intent search queries and answers about installing and using this skill.

FAQPage Schema
How do I calculate portfolio VaR and CVaR using Monte Carlo simulations?

Portfolio VaR and CVaR are calculated using historical, parametric, or Monte Carlo simulations to assess portfolio vulnerability. This approach applies statistical modeling and distribution fitting to return series to quantify potential drawdowns.

What is the best way to stress-test assets against extreme market scenarios?

Stress-testing assets evaluates portfolio resilience against historical crises or custom hypothetical shocks. By simulating events like a 100bp interest rate hike, you can measure vulnerability and identify potential impacts on current asset allocations before making adjustments.

How does tail-risk analysis identify hidden vulnerabilities in investment strategies?

Tail-risk analysis identifies hidden vulnerabilities by detecting fat-tail risks using Extreme Value Theory and Generalized Pareto Distribution fitting. This method uncovers extreme market movements beyond standard volatility metrics in your investment strategies.

Do I need scipy and numpy to perform statistical modeling on return series?

Yes, scipy and numpy are required to perform statistical modeling and distribution fitting on return series. These dependencies enable the mathematical computations necessary for calculating risk metrics and running Monte Carlo simulations.

Can I use historical return data to measure financial risk and evaluate drawdown potential?

Historical return data measures financial risk and evaluates drawdown potential by calculating Value at Risk and Conditional Value at Risk. This helps you move beyond simple volatility to understand tail-risk and the impact of extreme market scenarios.