skills.rest
mdbh202
mdbh202COMMUNITY
Explore all skills by this author →
GitHub

risk-manager

Calculate optimal Polymarket position sizes with the Kelly criterion.

Updated Mar 18, 2026
Search Tags:#portfolio-management#risk#position-sizing#polymarket#kelly#drawdown#risk-validation
One-click install
npx skills add https://github.com/mdbh202/polymarket-bot --skill risk-manager-mdbh202
Or copy as Structured Prompt for Agent▼
Please help me install this Agent Skill.
Skill: risk-manager
Source: https://github.com/mdbh202/polymarket-bot/tree/main/.gemini/skills/risk-manager
Command: npx skills add https://github.com/mdbh202/polymarket-bot --skill risk-manager-mdbh202

SYSTEM DOCUMENTATION & REQUIREMENTS

What problem does it solve?

Risk-manager helps ensure each Polymarket trade aligns with risk tolerance by calculating optimal position sizes using the Kelly criterion and enforcing portfolio constraints.

Core Features & Use Cases

  • Position sizing using the Kelly criterion adjusted for Polymarket's fee structure.
  • Portfolio risk checks, drawdown monitoring, and hard caps on exposure.
  • Validation of trades against max per-position and category exposure limits.
  • Responds to casual risk queries like "am I overexposed?" to provide actionable guidance.

Quick Start

Ask risk-manager to compute the recommended bet size for your current market using your portfolio and risk settings.

Frequently Asked Questions about risk-manager

High-intent search queries and answers about installing and using this skill.

FAQPage Schema
How do I calculate position size for Polymarket bets?▼

Calculate optimal position sizes for Polymarket bets by applying the Kelly criterion adjusted for the platform's fee structure. This ensures your trade size aligns with your risk tolerance and current portfolio state.

How does portfolio risk validation work for prediction market exposure?▼

Portfolio risk validation checks live trades against max per-position caps, category exposure limits, and drawdown constraints. It evaluates portfolio state to answer queries like am I overexposed with actionable guidance.

Can I enforce drawdown limits and category exposure caps on my trades?▼

Yes, you can enforce drawdown limits and category exposure caps. The validation logic integrates with your portfolio state to apply hard caps on exposure across individual bets and broader market categories.

What is the best way to monitor risk during portfolio rebalancing?▼

The best way to monitor risk during portfolio rebalancing is to perform on-demand risk checks that calculate optimal position sizes. This applies drawdown constraints and exposure limits to your new allocations.

Does the Kelly criterion work with Polymarket's fee adjustments?▼

Yes, the Kelly criterion works with Polymarket's fee adjustments by incorporating the fee structure into the calculation. This modifies the optimal position size to reflect actual net returns.

Related Skills

Explore More Finance & Accounting Skills→
BankrBotBankrBot
80

Bankr Dev - Polymarket

Search Polymarket markets and retrieve odds via natural language prompts.

Official
Intermediate
IhsanDanish25IhsanDanish25
2

position-sizer

Calculate position sizes for long stock trades using fixed fractional, ATR-based, or Kelly Criterion methods.

Community
Advanced
alsk1992alsk1992
650

feeds

Retrieve real-time and historical market data from prediction market platforms via WebSocket and REST APIs.

Community
Intermediate
nimadorostkarnimadorostkar
25

position-sizing

Calculate share counts from account equity, entry price, and stop-loss distance.

Community
Advanced