Scenario

Structured scenario analysis generates explicit bull, base, bear, and black swan scenarios with defined trigger signals and probability weights. It calculates TSR decomposition and expected value to evaluate outcomes for stock-specific or macro-driven investments.

TSR decomposition breaks down total shareholder return into growth, dividend, and PE multiple expansion components. It works by applying these calculations across multiple probability-weighted scenarios to produce an expected value for investment decision-making.

Yes, you can calculate expected value across multiple stock scenarios by assigning probability weights that sum to 100%. Each scenario receives explicit trigger signals and TSR decomposition, enabling direct comparison of risk-adjusted outcomes.

Generate leading indicators by creating monitoring tables that track explicit trigger signals for each defined scenario. These tables monitor forward-looking metrics to evaluate whether bull, base, bear, or black swan conditions are materializing.

No specific dependencies are required to run this scenario analysis approach. It operates independently to produce four explicit scenarios with probability sums of 100%, TSR computations, and monitoring tables for equity research.

The best way to model a black swan scenario is to define it as one of four explicit outcomes with specific trigger signals and a probability weight. This ensures the extreme risk is quantified alongside bull, base, and bear cases in the expected value calculation.