special-situations-analyst

Values banks, young, distressed, private, and cyclical firms using branch-specific valuation engines.

Updated Sep 9, 2026
One-click install
npx skills add https://github.com/lyndonkl/hermesworld --skill special-situations-analyst-lyndonkl
Or copy as Structured Prompt for Agent
Please help me install this Agent Skill.
Skill: special-situations-analyst
Source: https://github.com/lyndonkl/hermesworld/tree/main/packages/special-situations-analyst/skills/valuation-specialists/special-situations-analyst
Command: npx skills add https://github.com/lyndonkl/hermesworld --skill special-situations-analyst-lyndonkl

SYSTEM DOCUMENTATION & REQUIREMENTS

💡 This Skill includes references (resource) components.

What problem does it solve? Standard DCF valuation breaks down for banks, pre-revenue startups, distressed firms, private companies, and commodity businesses. This Skill executes the correct non-standard valuation branch chosen by the orchestrator's routing, producing the same downstream artifacts as a standard intrinsic valuation so critics and reconcilers never branch on company type. ## Core Features & Use Cases - Branch-specific engines: Runs excess-return models for financial service firms, revenue-driven models with failure probability for young firms, probability-weighted distress blends with an equity-as-option cross-check, normalized earnings for cyclicals, and total-beta plus illiquidity-discount adjustments for private companies and IPOs. - Constraint enforcement: Refuses forbidden methods (e.g., no FCFF for banks, no illiquidity discount for IPOs) and records every excluded standard method with its constraint for audit. - Contract-compliant outputs: Writes forecast.json, dcf-result.json, and intrinsic.md under the intrinsic stage's contract, validated by a cross-artifact consistency checker. - Use Case: An orchestrator routes a distressed retailer to this stage; it computes a bond-implied cumulative default probability, blends going-concern and distress values, cross-checks equity as an option, and hands downstream stages a standard artifact set. ## Quick Start Ask the valuation orchestrator to value a distressed or private company and it will delegate the non-standard branch to this stage automatically.

Frequently Asked Questions about special-situations-analyst

High-intent search queries and answers about installing and using this skill.

FAQPage Schema
How do I value a bank or financial service firm with a DCF?

Value equity directly with an excess-return or FCFE model rather than FCFF, since debt is raw material for a bank. Use retention-based reinvestment for stable banks and regulatory-capital reinvestment when capital ratios are moving, discounting at the cost of equity.

How do I value a distressed company with default risk?

Blend the going-concern value against distress proceeds using a cumulative default probability sourced from traded bond prices, ratings, or sector survival data. When market debt exceeds 50% of capital with negative earnings, cross-check equity as a call option on firm value.

How do I value a young or pre-revenue company?

Work backwards from an end state: set a target margin from the mature sector, terminal growth at or below the riskfree rate, then build the revenue path to it with a sales-to-capital ratio. Include a survival probability and let the cost of capital fall as the firm matures.

When should I use total beta instead of market beta?

Use total beta when valuing a private company for an undiversified buyer, since they bear total rather than diversified risk. Divide the market beta by the square root of the regression R-squared, then apply an illiquidity discount to equity value after the bridge.

Can this Skill be used standalone outside the orchestrator?

No, it is a stage brief loaded by the valuation orchestrator when routing selects a non-standard branch. For direct use, load the special-situation-models skill instead, which exposes the same computation scripts without the pipeline contract.

Why does the valuation return blocked or needs_input?

The stage returns blocked when a required input field is missing, the route is a plain standard path, or a constraint forbids valuation. It returns needs_input when a judgment like recovery percentage or buyer diversification requires the user, rather than guessing.