steelman-my-bet

What problem does it solve?

This Skill helps when you need a real reality check on a major decision, plan, or project and want the strongest argument that it could be wrong instead of comforting validation.

Core Features & Use Cases

• Precise bet framing: Turns a vague worry into one specific, falsifiable claim so the analysis targets the right decision.
• Adversarial steelmanning: Builds the strongest credible case against the bet using base rates, domain skepticism, hidden opportunity costs, and weak points in the plan.
• Assumption stress test: Surfaces the load-bearing beliefs the bet depends on and identifies concrete evidence that would falsify each one.
• Bias and blind-spot check: Assesses whether sunk cost, public commitment, or prior overconfidence would cause bad signals to be ignored.
• Use case: A founder asks whether to keep investing in a startup, a creator asks if a new strategy is actually working, or anyone wants a hard-edged critique before doubling down.

Quick Start

Ask the steelman-my-bet skill to analyze my biggest current bet and give me the strongest case that it is wrong.