Stochastic Controller

Select optimal market-making actions using Bayesian beliefs and HJB value functions.

Updated Aug 27, 2026
One-click install
npx skills add https://github.com/trudumb/hyper_make --skill stochastic-controller
Or copy as Structured Prompt for Agent
Please help me install this Agent Skill.
Skill: Stochastic Controller
Source: https://github.com/trudumb/hyper_make/tree/main/.claude/skills/domains/stochastic-controller
Command: npx skills add https://github.com/trudumb/hyper_make --skill stochastic-controller

SYSTEM DOCUMENTATION & REQUIREMENTS

What problem does it solve?

Understand and modify the Layer 3 stochastic control system that makes optimal sequential decisions. This layer sits between estimation (L1-L2) and execution (L4), answering: "Given what we believe about the market, what is the optimal action?"

Core Features & Use Cases

  • Bayesian beliefs and online updates for drift, volatility, and fill intensity to drive decisions.
  • HJB-based optimal quoting with inventory skew and predictive drift adjustments.
  • Changepoint detection to adapt to regime shifts and reset beliefs when needed.

Quick Start

Load the Stochastic Controller module and run the OptimalController to compute the next action given current state.

Frequently Asked Questions about Stochastic Controller

High-intent search queries and answers about installing and using this skill.

FAQPage Schema
How do I compute optimal quoting actions for a market-making agent using Bayesian beliefs?

Optimal quoting actions for a market-making agent are computed using HJB value functions driven by Bayesian beliefs. The controller applies online Bayesian updates for drift, volatility, and fill intensity to determine the next action.

What is stochastic control for market making and when do I need HJB solvers?

Stochastic control for market making determines optimal sequential decisions between estimation and execution layers. HJB solvers are needed when computing continuous-time optimal actions that incorporate inventory skew and predictive drift adjustments.

How do I detect market regime shifts and reset Bayesian beliefs during online trading?

Market regime shifts are detected using a changepoint detector that triggers belief resets. This allows the stochastic controller to adapt to new market conditions and maintain accurate Bayesian updates.

Can I use Normal-Inverse-Gamma and Dirichlet distributions for online Bayesian updates in market making?

Yes, the stochastic controller requires online Bayesian updates using Normal-Inverse-Gamma, Gamma, and Dirichlet distributions. These distributions update beliefs about drift, volatility, and fill intensity to drive optimal decisions.

What's the best way to implement inventory skew and predictive drift adjustments in optimal quoting?

Inventory skew and predictive drift adjustments are implemented through HJB-based optimal quoting. The HJB solver computes quote edges by incorporating current inventory state and Bayesian belief updates.

Do I need a continuous-time HJB solver to manage risk in stochastic market-making systems?

Yes, a continuous-time HJB solver is required to produce optimal actions and manage risk. The solver computes value functions that account for inventory skew, predictive drift, and Bayesian belief updates.