thesis-tracker

Define the thesis with a core statement, 3-5 supporting pillars, key risks, catalysts, and a stop-loss trigger, then log each new data point with its impact on specific pillars. A running scorecard shows whether each pillar is on track, behind, or pending.

Compare current results against the original expectations for each pillar in the scorecard and review the trend column for deterioration. The Skill updates conviction to High, Medium, or Low and recommends holding, trimming, or exiting based on the evidence.

A falsifiable thesis defines specific conditions that would disprove it, such as margin targets, growth thresholds, or a stop-loss trigger. If no evidence could invalidate the thesis, it is an opinion rather than a testable thesis.

Yes, each thesis maintains its own catalyst calendar with dates, events, and expected impact. You can also request a full portfolio thesis review covering all positions at once.

The Skill recommends reviewing theses at least quarterly even when nothing dramatic has happened, plus event-driven updates after earnings, management changes, or competitor moves. Disconfirming evidence should be tracked as rigorously as confirming evidence.