thesis-tracker

Creates and tracks investment theses with quarterly assumption checks and red-line triggers.

16.4k|2.5k|Updated Apr 7, 2026
One-click install
npx skills add https://github.com/xbtlin/ai-berkshire --skill thesis-tracker-xbtlin
Or copy as Structured Prompt for Agent
Please help me install this Agent Skill.
Skill: thesis-tracker
Source: https://github.com/xbtlin/ai-berkshire/tree/main/codex-skills/thesis-tracker
Command: npx skills add https://github.com/xbtlin/ai-berkshire --skill thesis-tracker-xbtlin

SYSTEM DOCUMENTATION & REQUIREMENTS

What problem does it solve? After buying a stock, most investors lack a disciplined system for tracking whether their original reasoning still holds, leading to panic selling or holding losers too long. This Skill enforces a written investment thesis with verifiable assumptions, red lines, and periodic health checks. ## Core Features & Use Cases - Thesis Creation: Builds a 5-sentence core thesis, a verifiable assumption checklist, red-line sell conditions, and valuation anchors saved to a persistent thesis file. - Quarterly Tracking: Validates each assumption against the latest earnings and events, assigns a 1-10 thesis health score, and outputs a clear action (add, hold, trim, or exit). - Use Case: After buying a stock, run a quarterly check to see whether revenue growth, margins, and management behavior still support your thesis, and get an explicit hold-or-sell recommendation with updated valuation anchors. ## Quick Start Ask the AI to run a thesis tracking check on a company you hold, for example by saying: run a quarterly thesis check on Pinduoduo using the latest earnings.

Frequently Asked Questions about thesis-tracker

High-intent search queries and answers about installing and using this skill.

FAQPage Schema
How do I track an investment thesis after buying a stock?

Write a 5-sentence thesis covering the business, moat, management, valuation margin of safety, and downside risk, then break it into 3-7 verifiable assumptions. Each quarter, check the latest earnings against each assumption and score thesis health from 1 to 10.

What is a red-line condition in stock investing?

A red-line condition is a pre-written trigger that forces action regardless of price, such as management integrity issues, two consecutive quarters of revenue decline, or a broken moat. When triggered, the skill recommends immediate action like trimming or exiting the position.

How is the thesis health score calculated?

Health score starts at 10 and subtracts 3 points per broken assumption, 2 per damaged assumption, 1 per weakening assumption, and 5 per triggered red line. Scores of 9-10 suggest adding, 7-8 holding, 5-6 holding with caution, 3-4 trimming, and 1-2 selling.

Does this skill work for stocks I have not bought yet?

It is designed for positions you already hold or are about to buy, since the thesis records your buy price and position. For pre-purchase analysis, use a full investment research workflow first, then establish the thesis at purchase time.

Where are investment thesis files stored?

Each thesis is saved as a Markdown file named reports/{company}-thesis.md containing the core thesis, assumption checklist, red lines, valuation anchors, and an appended tracking log of every quarterly check.