time-series-econometrics

Estimates VAR/VECM models with Granger causality, Johansen cointegration, and IRF/FEVD using Python statsmodels.

33|6|Updated Mar 17, 2026
One-click install
npx skills add https://github.com/xjtulyc/awesome-rosetta-skills --skill time-series-econometrics
Or copy as Structured Prompt for Agent
Please help me install this Agent Skill.
Skill: time-series-econometrics
Source: https://github.com/xjtulyc/awesome-rosetta-skills/tree/main/skills/07-economics/time-series-econometrics
Command: npx skills add https://github.com/xjtulyc/awesome-rosetta-skills --skill time-series-econometrics

SYSTEM DOCUMENTATION & REQUIREMENTS

💡 This Skill requires statsmodels, arch, numpy, pandas, matplotlib.

What problem does it solve?

This Skill helps you analyze multivariate time series in economics by estimating dynamic relationships, testing predictive causality, and identifying long-run comovement through cointegration.

Core Features & Use Cases

  • VAR modeling & diagnostics: Fit VAR(p), select lag order via information criteria, and check stability to ensure sensible dynamics.
  • Causality & cointegration testing: Run Granger causality tests for predictive influence and Johansen cointegration tests for shared long-run trends.
  • Dynamic adjustment & interpretation: Estimate VECM for cointegrated systems and produce impulse response functions (IRFs) and forecast error variance decomposition (FEVD) to interpret shocks.
  • Use Case: You have quarterly GDP, inflation, interest rates, and exchange rates and want to quantify how shocks propagate, whether variables Granger-cause each other, and whether they share cointegrating relationships.

Quick Start

Use the time-series-econometrics Skill to fit a multivariate time series VAR, test Granger causality, run Johansen cointegration, estimate a VECM if cointegrated, and generate IRF/FEVD plots for interpretation and forecasting.

Frequently Asked Questions about time-series-econometrics

High-intent search queries and answers about installing and using this skill.

FAQPage Schema
How do I test Granger causality and Johansen cointegration in a multivariate time series?

To test Granger causality and Johansen cointegration in a multivariate time series, you can use this Skill to run tests via statsmodels, producing causality tables and identifying shared long-run trends among economic variables.

How do I estimate a VAR model and generate impulse response functions using Python?

You estimate a VAR model and generate impulse response functions using Python by fitting VAR(p) with statsmodels, selecting lag order via information criteria, and producing IRF plots to interpret how shocks propagate through your economic dataset.

When should I use VECM instead of VAR for analyzing economic and financial datasets?

You should use VECM instead of VAR for analyzing economic and financial datasets when Johansen cointegration tests confirm shared long-run trends, requiring VECM estimation to capture dynamic adjustment alongside short-run dynamics.

Can I perform forecast error variance decomposition with statsmodels and pandas?

Yes, you can perform forecast error variance decomposition with statsmodels and pandas by fitting a multivariate time-series model and applying the Skill's workflow to quantify the contribution of shocks to forecast errors.

What is the best way to check VAR stability and interpret forecast error variance decomposition?

The best way to check VAR stability and interpret forecast error variance decomposition is to fit VAR(p) using statsmodels, verify stability conditions, and generate FEVD outputs to understand shock impacts on variable variance.

Does this Skill support bootstrap-style interpretation for impulse response functions?

Yes, this Skill supports bootstrap-style interpretation readiness for impulse response functions by estimating VAR dynamics with statsmodels and providing outputs designed for advanced shock interpretation in financial datasets.